New Hampshire President

Actual result

D+2.8

Final polls said

D+7.1

7 late polls · ✓

Model predicted

D+10.0

✓

Winner

Dem

"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).

Final rankings

How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).

Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result

#	Pollster	Final call	Miss	Called
1	Emerson College	D+3.7	0.9	✓
2	Rasmussen Reports	D+1.0	1.8	✓
3	University of New Hampshire	D+5.0	2.2	✓
4	Saint Anselm College	D+5.0	2.2	✓
5	Praecones Analytica	R+0.4	3.2	✗
6	University of Massachusetts Lowell	D+7.0	4.2	✓
7	VotePredictor	D+10.0	7.2	✓
8	The Dartmouth Poll	D+28.4	25.6	✓

Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier

#	Forecaster	Win prob	Brier	Called
1	CNalysis	Dem 99%	0.000	✓
2	VotePredictor	Dem 99%	0.000	✓
3	The Economist	Dem 96%	0.002	✓
4	Race to the WH	Dem 93%	0.005	✓
5	DDHQ/Decision Desk	Dem 91%	0.008	✓
6	Sabato's Crystal Ball	Dem 90%	0.010	✓
7	Fox News	Dem 90%	0.010	✓
8	Elections Daily	Dem 90%	0.010	✓
9	FiveThirtyEight	Dem 89%	0.012	✓
10	JHK Forecasts	Dem 86%	0.020	✓
11	Silver Bulletin	Dem 86%	0.020	✓
12	Split Ticket	Dem 77%	0.053	✓
13	Inside Elections	Dem 75%	0.062	✓
14	Cook Political	Dem 75%	0.062	✓

Polls (7)

Pollster	Date	n	Poll	Miss
The Dartmouth Poll	2024-11-02	587	D+28.4	26
University of New Hampshire	2024-10-31	2814	D+5.0	2
Saint Anselm College	2024-10-28	2791	D+5.0	2
Rasmussen Reports	2024-10-26	901	D+1.0	2
Praecones Analytica	2024-10-25	622	R+0.4	3
Emerson College	2024-10-22	915	D+3.7	1
University of Massachusetts Lowell	2024-10-16	600	D+7.0	4