AR-2 House
The 2026 AR-2 House race is essentially a toss-up: French Hill (R) holds a narrow 55% edge, projected to win by about 2 points. Updated daily from 1 poll.
Why this forecast
This forecast is poll-driven: 1 poll of the race so far. After weighting them by recency and correcting each pollster's house effect, the model (TabPFN) predicts R+2.1 — a 55% Republican win. With only a poll or two this early, the forecast stays cautious and leans partly on the seat's history.
The polls behind it
1 poll · newest firstFrequently asked questions
Who is winning the 2026 AR-2 House race?
VotePredictor's model favors French Hill (R), with roughly a 55% chance of winning and a projected margin of R+2.1. It is close enough to be a toss-up.
What do the polls say in the AR-2 House race?
There is 1 poll of this race. The most recent, from Hendrix College (2026-08-13), showed D+4.0. VotePredictor's poll-weighted projection is R+2.1.
Who are the candidates in the 2026 AR-2 House race?
Chris Jones is the Democratic candidate; French Hill is the Republican.
When is the 2026 AR-2 House election?
Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026. VotePredictor refreshes this forecast every day until then.
How does VotePredictor forecast the AR-2 House race?
It is a poll-driven model. Recent polls are weighted by recency and adjusted for each pollster's historical house effect, then a machine-learning model (TabPFN) trained on U.S. races from 1998–2025 turns them into a projected margin and win probability.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.