Michigan Senate
Abdul El-Sayed (D) is favored to win the 2026 Michigan Senate race — about a 85% chance, winning by about 4 points in the projection, after the lead recently flipped. Updated daily from 15 polls.
How the odds moved
VotePredictor Elections' win probability for each party, rerun from the polls available on each date — hover the chart to read any day. The dashed line is even odds.
What the markets say
Chance of a Democratic winMarket prices are shown for comparison and are never an input to the forecast — a 2024 test found blending Polymarket in made the model's calls measurably worse. Where the two disagree, one of them is wrong, and the track record is the only way to find out which.
Why this forecast
This forecast is poll-driven: 15 polls of the race so far. After weighting them by recency and correcting each pollster's house effect, the model (TabPFN) predicts D+3.9 — a 85% Democratic win.
Latest news
Trump plays Muslim Brotherhood card against Senate candidate El-SayedPresident Donald Trump says Michigan Senate candidate Abdul El-Sayed is a member of the Muslim Brotherhood.
Al Jazeera English · Today
Abdul El-Sayed Identifies as ‘Cisgender and Straight'Michigan Democrat Senate nominee Abdul El-Sayed identified himself as “cisgender and straight” in a video circulated on social media Wednesday. The post Abdul El-Sayed Identifies as ‘Cisgender and Straight’ appeared first on Breitbart.
Breitbart News · Today- What Abdul El-Sayed Is Hiding
On Sunday’s Meet the Press, Kristen Welker asked the Democratic Senate nominee in Michigan, Abdul El-Sayed, whether he could set the record straight on allegations that his family has ties to the Muslim Brotherhood. When she followed up to confirm that neithe…
Freerepublic.com · Today 
Why a Senate win for Abdul El-Sayed has Capitol Hill running scaredAs a US senator, El-Sayed would pose a massive threat to American national security: He’s running as a thinly veiled Trojan horse on behalf of the Muslim Brotherhood and the Islamism it embodies.
New York Post · Yesterday
AOC, JD Vance Head to Michigan as Polls Show Tight El-Sayed-Rogers RaceNew York Democrat Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Vice President JD Vance will make competing appearances in Michigan on Thursday as they campaign for Democratic Senate candidate Abdul El-Sayed and Republican rival Mike Rogers, respectively, injecting national p…
Biztoc.com · Yesterday
- AOC, JD Vance Head to Michigan as Polls Show Tight El-Sayed-Rogers Race
New York Democrat Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Vice President JD Vance will make competing appearances in Michigan on Thursday as they campaign for Democratic Senate candidate Abdul El-Sayed and Republican rival Mike Rogers, respectively, injecting national p…
Biztoc.com · Yesterday 
Abdul El-Sayed’s denial on Muslim Brotherhood ties provides opening for Mike RogersRepublican Mike Rogers and his allies are working to cast Democrat Abdul El-Sayed as sympathetic to terrorists in the bruising Michigan Senate contest.
New York Post · Yesterday
Why many Jewish Michiganders are torn over Abdul El-Sayed’s Senate candidacyGilda Jacobs, president and CEO of the Michigan League for Public Policy, has been a Democrat her entire life, even once serving in the Michigan State Assembly. But in this year’s U.S. Senate race, pitting Democrat Abdul El-Sayed against Republican former Rep…
Biztoc.com · Yesterday
'What could it cost, ten dollars?’ Sneers spread over Republican's paltry gas giveawayKristi Rogers, the wife of Michigan Republican Senate nominee Mike Rogers, handed out $10 gas cards at a Detroit gas station Wednesday, and critics quickly mocked the giveaway, blaming soaring fuel prices on President Donald Trump’s war with Iran.Reporter Sam…
Raw Story · Yesterday
‘Deep State Grift’: Mike Rogers’ Wealth Soared as Wife’s Private Military Firm Won Billion-Dollar ContractsFormer US Rep. Mike Rogers, the Republican Senate candidate in Michigan, saw his personal wealth soar after he was named chair of the House Intelligence Committee in 2011, thanks in large part to his marriage to the CEO of a powerful military contracting firm…
Common Dreams · Yesterday
Headlines via NewsAPI, refreshed daily.
The polls behind it
15 polls · newest firstFrequently asked questions
Who is winning the 2026 Michigan Senate race?
VotePredictor's model favors Abdul El-Sayed (D), with roughly a 85% chance of winning and a projected margin of D+3.9.
What do the polls say in the Michigan Senate race?
There are 15 polls of this race. The most recent, from Z to A Research (2026-10-01), showed D+7.0. VotePredictor's poll-weighted projection is D+3.9.
Who are the candidates in the 2026 Michigan Senate race?
Abdul El-Sayed is the Democratic candidate; Mike Rogers is the Republican.
When is the 2026 Michigan Senate election?
Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026. VotePredictor refreshes this forecast every day until then.
Has the 2026 Michigan Senate forecast changed recently?
Yes — over the polls collected so far, the lead has changed hands — it now favors Abdul El-Sayed (D) at 85%. The chart above tracks the full trajectory.
How does VotePredictor forecast the Michigan Senate race?
It is a poll-driven model. Recent polls are weighted by recency and adjusted for each pollster's historical house effect, then a machine-learning model (TabPFN) trained on U.S. races from 1998–2025 turns them into a projected margin and win probability.