Why this forecast
This forecast is poll-driven: 8 polls of the race so far. After weighting them by recency and correcting each pollster's house effect, the model (TabPFN) predicts R+0.7 — a 53% Republican win.
Forecast over time
The model's win probability for each party, rerun from the polls available on each date. Dashed line = even odds.
Latest news
AI, data center fears could be key in closely watched Michigan Democratic Senate primaryAbdul El-Sayed and Rep. Haley Stevens will face off in the Michigan Democratic Senate primary on Aug. 4.
Biztoc.com · Today
AI, data center fears could be key in closely watched Michigan Democratic Senate primaryAbdul El-Sayed and Rep. Haley Stevens will face off in the Michigan Democratic Senate primary on Aug. 4.
CNBC · Today
DR MARC SIEGEL: A Senate candidate's medical title sparks a debate voters shouldn't ignoreAbdul El-Sayed supports Medicare for All but has never treated patients, raising questions about his claim to be a physician in the Senate race.
Fox News · Today.png)
Michigan Is the Next Big Test for the Democratic PartyThe Senate primary race between Haley Stevens and Abdul El-Sayed reflects the Party’s growing ideological schism, but it’s also a contest of competing campaign styles. Jason Zengerle reports.
The New Yorker · Today
Fox News Host Accuses Democrat of ‘Indoctrinating’ Young Kids by Telling Them To ShareFox News's Charlie Hurt accused Michigan Democratic Senate candidate Abdul El-Sayed of instilling communist values in children by talking to them about sharing. The post Fox News Host Accuses Democrat of ‘Indoctrinating’ Young Kids by Telling Them To Share fi…
Mediaite · Today
- Planned Parenthood targets vulnerable Republicans with $47 million midterm push
Planned Parenthood is investing a near-record $47 million into the November midterm elections aiming to unseat the Republicans who voted to cut off the organization from federal funding last year. The “We Decide” campaign from Planned Parenthood Votes — an in…
Freerepublic.com · Yesterday 
Who Benefits From Mallory McMorrow’s Exit in the Michigan Senate Race?In Michigan’s Democratic race for U.S. Senate, state Senator Mallory McMorrow was caught in the middle of—and ultimately squeezed out by—centrist Haley Stevens and progressive populist Abdul El-Sayed. Now, with McMorrow having suspended her campaign on Sunday…
The New Republic · July 8, 2026
Abdul El-Sayed vs. Haley Stevens Chances of Beating Mike Rogers in MichiganState senator Mallory McMorrow’s withdrawal from Michigan’s U.S. Senate race has narrowed the Democratic primary to a two-candidate contest, setting up a high-stakes battle between U.S. Representative Haley Stevens and public health official Abdul El-Sayed. B…
Biztoc.com · July 6, 2026
Mallory McMorrow Drops Out Of The Democratic Senate Primary In MichiganProbably for the best. Recent polls have become increasingly grim for McMorrow. Source: CNN Mallory McMorrow dropped out of the Democratic Senate primary in Michigan on Sunday, narrowing the field to two as the party faces a crucial choice next month in picki…
Crooksandliars.com · July 6, 2026- Mallory McMorrow Suspends U.S. Senate Campaign After Scandal-Plagued Run(Michigan).
Michigan state Senator Mallory McMorrow has dropped out of the U.S. Senate campaign, according to a report from the Detroit News. Democrat voters in Michigan must choose between socialist Abdul El-Sayed and U.S. Democrat Rep. Haley Stevens (MI-11) to fill the…
Freerepublic.com · July 5, 2026
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Polls (8)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll |
|---|---|---|---|
| Quantus Insights | 2026-06-30 | 947 | D+1.1 |
| Zenith Research | 2026-06-14 | 602 | D+3.0 |
| Tulchin Research | 2026-06-04 | 500 | D+5.0 |
| TIPP Insights | 2026-05-23 | 1456 | EVEN |
| Mitchell Research & Communications | 2026-05-07 | 607 | D+1.0 |
| Glengariff Group, Inc. | 2026-05-01 | 600 | R+5.0 |
| Emerson College | 2026-01-25 | 1000 | R+0.3 |
| Glengariff Group, Inc. | 2026-01-06 | 600 | R+6.0 |