Michigan Senate
Abdul El-Sayed (D) is favored to win the 2026 Michigan Senate race — about a 82% chance, winning by about 3 points in the projection, after the lead recently flipped. Updated daily from 18 polls.
How the odds moved
VotePredictor Elections' win probability for each party, rerun from the polls available on each date — hover the chart to read any day. The dashed line is even odds.
What the markets say
Chance of a Democratic winMarket prices are shown for comparison and are never an input to the forecast — a 2024 test found blending Polymarket in made the model's calls measurably worse. Where the two disagree, one of them is wrong, and the track record is the only way to find out which.
Why this forecast
This forecast is poll-driven: 18 polls of the race so far. After weighting them by recency and correcting each pollster's house effect, the model (TabPFN) predicts D+3.4 — a 82% Democratic win.
Latest news
Inside Trump's blow-up at Fox News over El-Sayed coverageRepublicans have spent months griping privately to Fox News about coverage they argue is helping Abdul El-Sayed, Michigan's Democratic nominee for Senate, moderate his image. The frustration boiled into public view Tuesday when President Trump lashed out at h…
Biztoc.com · Today
5 Key Issues Mike Rogers, Abdul El-Sayed Must Own During Michigan DebateMichigan's Senate nominees share a stage for the first time Thursday night as Republican Mike Rogers and Democrat Abdul El-Sayed debate in Grand Rapids in one of the midterms' most closely watched races. WOOD-TV is hosting the hourlong debate from its studios…
Biztoc.com · Today
Trump Calls Abdul El-Sayed 'Terrorist Sympathizer,' Renames Him 'Mohammed'President Donald Trump has launched a fresh attack on Democratic Michigan Senate candidate Abdul El-Sayed, branding him "a radical extremist, terrorist sympathizer." Writing on Truth Social on Wednesday evening, Trump said: "Mohammed El-Sayed is a terrible Ca…
Biztoc.com · Today
Trump says El-Sayed 'radical extremist'United States President Donald Trump said Democratic Senate nominee Abdul El-Sayed is a "terrible candidate for the Dumocrats," calling him a "radical extremist.""Mohammed El-Sayed is a terrible Candi...
Biztoc.com · Today
El-Sayed: 'Dumb' to Ask if I Think Iran's a Bigger Threat Than Israel, 'Our Job' Is to Use DiplomacyDuring a portion of an interview that took place on Tuesday and was released on Wednesday, Michigan Democratic U.S. Senate nominee Abdul El-Sayed refused to say if he thinks Israel is a bigger threat to the U.S. than Iran and The post El-Sayed: ‘Dumb’ to Ask …
Breitbart News · Today
- 5 Key Issues Mike Rogers, Abdul El-Sayed Must Own During Michigan Debate
Michigan's Senate nominees share a stage for the first time Thursday night as Republican Mike Rogers and Democrat Abdul El-Sayed debate in Grand Rapids in one of the midterms' most closely watched races. WOOD-TV is hosting the hourlong debate from its studios…
Biztoc.com · Today - Planned Parenthood Will Spend $1 Million, Helping Abdul El-Sayed
Planned Parenthood Votes will spend another $1 million on digital ads attacking Republican Senate candidates in Maine and Michigan, an outlay that boosts radical pro-abortion Democrat Abdul El-Sayed in the race to replace retiring Sen. Gary Peters. The super …
Freerepublic.com · Yesterday 
Mike Rogers Turns on Trump's Tariffs: What Michigan Republican Said BeforeMichigan Republican Senate candidate Mike Rogers is calling for an immediate end to President Donald Trump's trade war with Canada, a notable shift from comments he made just weeks ago defending tariffs as a necessary part of the president's economic agenda. …
Biztoc.com · Yesterday
Mike Rogers Runs From Trump's Tariffs After Endorsing ThemRepublican Senate candidate Mike Rogers is trying to strike a subtle balance on Donald Trump's tariffs, arguing that some are necessary while recognizing that others could hurt Michigan. Rogers has said Trump's tariffs might help protect Michigan workers and …
Crooksandliars.com · Yesterday
Republican Senate candidate breaks with Trump over trade war with CanadaRepublican Senate candidate Mike Rogers has broken ranks with U.S. President Donald Trump by saying the trade war with Canada needs to end.
National Post · Yesterday
Headlines via NewsAPI, refreshed daily.
The polls behind it
18 polls · newest firstFrequently asked questions
Who is winning the 2026 Michigan Senate race?
VotePredictor's model favors Abdul El-Sayed (D), with roughly a 82% chance of winning and a projected margin of D+3.4.
What do the polls say in the Michigan Senate race?
There are 18 polls of this race. The most recent, from Mitchell Research & Communications (2026-10-01), showed D+5.0. VotePredictor's poll-weighted projection is D+3.4.
Who are the candidates in the 2026 Michigan Senate race?
Abdul El-Sayed is the Democratic candidate; Mike Rogers is the Republican.
When is the 2026 Michigan Senate election?
Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026. VotePredictor refreshes this forecast every day until then.
Has the 2026 Michigan Senate forecast changed recently?
Yes — over the polls collected so far, the lead has changed hands — it now favors Abdul El-Sayed (D) at 82%. The chart above tracks the full trajectory.
How does VotePredictor forecast the Michigan Senate race?
It is a poll-driven model. Recent polls are weighted by recency and adjusted for each pollster's historical house effect, then a machine-learning model (TabPFN) trained on U.S. races from 1998–2025 turns them into a projected margin and win probability.