Michigan Senate
The 2026 Michigan Senate race is essentially a toss-up: Mike Rogers (R) holds a narrow 52% edge, projected to win by less than a point, though it has tightened lately. Updated daily from 26 polls.
How the odds moved
VotePredictor Elections' win probability for each party, rerun from the polls available on each date — hover the chart to read any day. The dashed line is even odds.
What the markets say
Chance of a Democratic winMarket prices are shown for comparison and are never an input to the forecast — a 2024 test found blending Polymarket in made the model's calls measurably worse. Where the two disagree, one of them is wrong, and the track record is the only way to find out which.
Why this forecast
This forecast is poll-driven: 26 polls of the race so far. After weighting them by recency and correcting each pollster's house effect, the model (TabPFN) predicts R+0.4 — a 52% Republican win.
Latest news
El-Sayed To Vance: My Name Isn't The Problem, Trump's Policies AreAbdul El-Sayed whacked JD Vance for his racism on display during a campaign stop at an Ohio steel plant last week. Vance was doing his best to "other" El-Sayed, while repeating the right-wing lie that El-Sayed "openly calls for Sharia law in America," which …
Crooksandliars.com · Today
Democrat socialist candidate under fire after taking shots at JD Vance's wifeDemocratic socialist Senate candidate Abdul El-Sayed sparked outrage after dragging JD Vance's wife Usha into a bitter political clash with the vice president.
Dailymail.com · Today- El-Sayed under fire online after taking aim at Usha Vance, female Trump aide in weekend social media posts - Fox News
El-Sayed under fire online after taking aim at Usha Vance, female Trump aide in weekend social media postsFox News El-Sayed's agenda puts ‘permanently’ changed America on the line in Michigan Senate race, GOP firebrand warnsYahoo JD Vance unloads on Abdul El-…
Slashdot.org · Yesterday - Abdul El-Sayed Directly Responds To JD Vance's Attacks With 1 Simple Question - HuffPost
Abdul El-Sayed Directly Responds To JD Vance's Attacks With 1 Simple QuestionHuffPost El-Sayed under fire online after taking aim at Usha Vance, female Trump aide in weekend social media postsFox News El-Sayed's agenda puts ‘permanently’ changed America on th…
Slashdot.org · Yesterday 
GOP senator shredded for 'Sharia law' attack and Ken Paxton defense: 'Soooooo bad at this'Sen. Tim Scott's (R-SC) attempts Sunday to defend President Donald Trump's economy, his controversial colleagues and potentially Islamophobic attacks were met with immediate scorn.Scott was met with scathing reviews after he discussed on "Meet the Press" Sen.…
Raw Story · Yesterday
Trump snubbed at GOP convention as his own party won't say his name: reportPresident Donald Trump's name was barely mentioned at a Michigan GOP convention over the weekend, even as the party sought to present a "unified strategy" to voters, according to a new report. The Detroit Free Press reported that the Aug. 22 nominating conven…
Raw Story · Today
Republican Senate Candidate Tells Pro-Israel Group He Doesn’t Want Their Help Defeating Abdul El-Sayed: ReportRepublican Mike Rogers and his campaign have reportedly asked the pro-Israel organization AIPAC "not to advertise on his behalf" against Abdul El-Sayed. The post Republican Senate Candidate Tells Pro-Israel Group He Doesn’t Want Their Help Defeating Abdul El-…
Mediaite · August 22, 2026
Mike Rogers' Team Asked AIPAC Not to Run Ads Against El-Sayed: ReportRepublican Senate nominee Mike Rogers' campaign has urged the American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC) not to run advertisements against Democratic rival Abdul El-Sayed, according to an Axios report on Saturday. AIPAC and its affiliated political acti…
Biztoc.com · August 22, 2026- Coordination
This is illegal, but since laws aren't real anymore, we can at least laugh.Allies of Mike Rogers, Michigan's GOP nominee for the U.S. Senate, have asked AIPAC not to advertise on his behalf, triggering a rupture with the powerful but polarizing pro-Israel gro…
Eschatonblog.com · August 22, 2026 
Scoop: Mike Rogers-AIPAC rupture roils Michigan Senate raceAllies of Mike Rogers, Michigan's GOP nominee for the U.S. Senate, have asked AIPAC not to advertise on his behalf, triggering a rupture with the powerful but polarizing pro-Israel group. Rogers spoke with AIPAC chair Michael Tuchin in Los Angeles last week. …
Biztoc.com · August 22, 2026
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The polls behind it
26 polls · newest firstFrequently asked questions
Who is winning the 2026 Michigan Senate race?
VotePredictor's model favors Mike Rogers (R), with roughly a 52% chance of winning and a projected margin of R+0.4. It is close enough to be a toss-up.
What do the polls say in the Michigan Senate race?
There are 26 polls of this race. The most recent, from Susquehanna Polling & Research (2026-08-17), showed D+7.0. VotePredictor's poll-weighted projection is R+0.4.
Who are the candidates in the 2026 Michigan Senate race?
Abdul El-Sayed is the Democratic candidate; Mike Rogers is the Republican.
When is the 2026 Michigan Senate election?
Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026. VotePredictor refreshes this forecast every day until then.
Has the 2026 Michigan Senate forecast changed recently?
Yes — over the polls collected so far, the race has tightened; Mike Rogers (R) is now favored at 52%. The chart above tracks the full trajectory.
How does VotePredictor forecast the Michigan Senate race?
It is a poll-driven model. Recent polls are weighted by recency and adjusted for each pollster's historical house effect, then a machine-learning model (TabPFN) trained on U.S. races from 1998–2025 turns them into a projected margin and win probability.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.