Nebraska House
Mike Flood (R) is the clear favorite to win the 2026 Nebraska House race — about a 90% chance, winning by about 12 points in the projection. Updated daily from 1 poll.
How the odds moved
VotePredictor Elections' win probability for each party, rerun from the polls available on each date — hover the chart to read any day. The dashed line is even odds.
Why this forecast
This forecast is poll-driven: no polls of the race yet, so it leans on the seat's history and the national environment, predicting R+11.8 — a 90% Republican win.
The polls behind it
1 poll · newest firstFrequently asked questions
Who is winning the 2026 Nebraska House race?
VotePredictor's model favors Mike Flood (R), with roughly a 90% chance of winning and a projected margin of R+11.8.
What do the polls say in the Nebraska House race?
There is 1 poll of this race. The most recent, from Zenith Research (2026-05-11), showed R+7.0. VotePredictor's poll-weighted projection is R+11.8.
Who are the candidates in the 2026 Nebraska House race?
Chris Backemeyer is the Democratic candidate; Mike Flood is the Republican.
When is the 2026 Nebraska House election?
Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026. VotePredictor refreshes this forecast every day until then.
How does VotePredictor forecast the Nebraska House race?
It is a poll-driven model. Recent polls are weighted by recency and adjusted for each pollster's historical house effect, then a machine-learning model (TabPFN) trained on U.S. races from 1998–2025 turns them into a projected margin and win probability.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.