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Scott Colom vs. Cindy Hyde-Smith: Mississippi U.S. Senate election, 2026

Scott Colom vs. Cindy Hyde-Smith. Incumbent renominated.

VotePredictor forecast (our model)
Cindy Hyde-Smith favored
Safe R
99%
chance to win
R+9.5
predicted margin

Poll-driven model · 3 matched polls. Full forecast history and methodology → · Today's article: every poll and forecast →

Democratic

Scott Colom

Major-party general-election nominee.

Other listed candidates

  • Ty Pinkins · Independent

Polls

The polls behind it

3 polls · newest first

Each pollster name links to the poll's source; the grade under it is its VotePredictor grade from past elections. Margin is the poll as published. The ± under the sample size is the 95% margin of error on each candidate's share, from the sample size (the gap between them is about twice as uncertain). VotePredictor adjusted (“Our adj.” on small screens) is not a poll: it is our correction of that poll, for its pollster's record in past elections and for registered-voter or all-adult samples. It is the number our forecast reads.

PollsterDateMarginOur adj.
Change Research (via Wikipedia)Grade B-10-22R+3.0R+6.5
Data for ProgressGrade B+08-15R+6.0R+8.9
Impact ResearchGrade B-04-12R+3.0R+7.8

Campaign money

FEC reports through October 14, 2026
Cindy Hyde-SmithREP · incumbent$6.3M raised
Spent $5.0MCash on hand $1.4MDebts $60k9% from donors under $200
Top contributors, industries and states

Contributors

  1. HYDE-SMITH VICTORY FUND$432k
  2. BRITT SENATE VICTORY$248k
  3. ONE TEAM SENATE MAJORITY$77k
  4. 2026 SENATORS CLASSIC COMMITTEE$52k
  5. 2025 SENATORS CLASSIC COMMITTEE$41k

Industries

  1. Self-Employed & Freelance$223k
  2. Retired$162k
  3. Legal & Professional Services$85k
  4. Homemaker$47k
  5. Finance, Insurance & Real Estate$45k

States

  1. MS$1.4M
  2. FL$168k
  3. VA$89k
  4. GA$83k
  5. CT$74k
Every contribution on GovMoneyGraph ↗
Scott ColomDEM$4.4M raised
Spent $3.4MCash on hand $1.0MDebts $176k22% from donors under $200Self-funded $25k
Top contributors, industries and states

Contributors

  1. COLOM VICTORY FUND$263k
  2. JUSTICE 2026$88k
  3. COLOM, SCOTT$25k
  4. LAUFER, MARSHA$14k
  5. STRATTON COLOM VICTORY FUND$14k

Industries

  1. Unemployed$1.1M
  2. Self-Employed & Freelance$426k
  3. Legal & Professional Services$117k
  4. Finance, Insurance & Real Estate$89k
  5. Education & Academia$36k

States

  1. MS$695k
  2. CA$403k
  3. NY$337k
  4. MA$215k
  5. DC$115k
Every contribution on GovMoneyGraph ↗
Ty PinkinsIND$105k raised
Spent $106kCash on hand $4k64% from donors under $200
Top contributors, industries and states

Contributors

  1. KAEMPFER, JOSEPH$4k
  2. FISHER, DEBORAH$2k
  3. JAMES, SHARON$2k
  4. WICKERSHAM, DEB$2k
  5. FAUST, PATRICE$1k

Industries

  1. Not Reported$18k
  2. Self-Employed & Freelance$1k
  3. Education & Academia$600
  4. Government$250
  5. Technology & Communications$250

States

  1. MS$13k
  2. CA$6k
  3. VA$4k
  4. OR$2k
  5. AZ$1k
Every contribution on GovMoneyGraph ↗

What each candidate's own campaign committees reported for the 2025–26 cycle; outside spending by PACs and parties is not included. Industries are classified from donors' reported employers. The Senate forecast does not read these figures. Data: GovMoneyGraph, based on FEC records.

Other forecasts

VotePredictor (ours)
R 99%
a probability from our model
Cook
Likely R≈ R 90%
as of Nov 2, 2026
DDHQ
Likely R≈ R 90%
as of Nov 3, 2026
Econ
Likely R≈ R 90%
as of Nov 3, 2026
FPO
Safe R≈ R 99%
as of Nov 2, 2026
Fox
Likely R≈ R 90%
as of Nov 1, 2026
IE
Likely R≈ R 90%
as of Oct 29, 2026
MS NOW
Likely R≈ R 90%
as of Oct 29, 2026
NBC
Likely R≈ R 90%
as of Nov 3, 2026
RCP
Likely R≈ R 90%
as of Nov 2, 2026
Sabato
Likely R≈ R 90%
as of Nov 2, 2026
Silver
Solid R≈ R 99%
as of Nov 3, 2026
ST
Likely R≈ R 90%
as of Nov 2, 2026

The source we collect records each outlet's rating category, not a probability; some of these outlets run models with their own numbers on their sites. The ≈ figure is the standard conversion of the category (Toss-up 50%, Tilt 60%, Lean 75%, Likely 90%, Solid 99%), the one our scorecard grades them on, not a number they published. They remain independent of VotePredictor. Sources and update dates ↗

Independent models

Who Shows Up · independent model ↗
R 97%R+9.9
as of 2026-11-03

Win probabilities published by independent statistical models, shown with credit as their terms allow: Who Shows Up (whoshowsup.net), by Kurt Wirth. These are their numbers, not ratings converted by us, and not VotePredictor's. The better-known model forecasters (Decision Desk HQ, FiftyPlusOne, Silver Bulletin, the Economist) don't permit republishing their probabilities, so they appear above by rating only.

What the markets say

Chance of winning
VotePredictor Elections modelD 1%R 99%
Polymarket ↗D 98%R 2%
Kalshi ↗D 97%R 3%

Market prices are shown for comparison and are never an input to the forecast — a 2024 test found blending Polymarket in made the model's calls measurably worse. Where the two disagree, one of them is wrong, and the track record is the only way to find out which.

Past results

Every U.S. Senate election in Mississippi we hold a result for. A state elects two senators on separate cycles, so this covers both of its seats, not only the one on the ballot in 2026.

YearWinnerMargin
2020Cindy Hyde-Smith(R)R+10.0
2018Cindy Hyde-Smith(R)R+19.0
2014Thad Cochran(R)R+22.0
2008Roger F. Wicker(R)R+22.9

Candidate news

Mississippi Senate: Longshot Ty Pinkins says he aimed to spoil Hyde-Smith, boost Colom vote - CNBC

Mississippi Senate: Longshot Ty Pinkins says he aimed to spoil Hyde-Smith, boost Colom voteCNBC 2026 Election Results Live Updates: Democrats’ Lead in Mississippi Senate Midterm GrowsThe New York Times No one knows how many ballots are outstanding in Mississi…

Slashdot.org · Today
Colom Flips Forrest County, Named for KKK Founder...

Mississippi Democratic U.S. Senate candidate Scott Colom has flipped Forrest County, named for Ku Klux Klan founder Nathan Bedford Forrest.

Mississippifreepress.org · Today
No one knows how many ballots are outstanding in Mississippi's Senate race

The razor-thin margin between GOP Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith and Democrat Scott Colom is shining a light on an election process in Mississippi that is among the slowest and most decentralized in the U.S.

NPR · Today
Mississippi Senate: Longshot Ty Pinkins says he aimed to spoil Hyde-Smith, boost Colom vote

Ty Pinkins said he avoided campaigning in heavily Black areas of Mississippi to avoid harming chances for Democrat Scott Colom, who like him is Black.

CNBC · Today
The fight is growing over ballot counting in Mississippi’s tight Senate race - CNN

The fight is growing over ballot counting in Mississippi’s tight Senate raceCNN Mississippi U.S. Senate Midterm Election 2026: Live ResultsNBC News When will Mississippi's US Senate race be called? Check the latest numbers10TV Scott Colom Flips Forrest County…

Slashdot.org · Today
This Mississippi Senate Race Is Really Making Me Nervous

With how tight the margin is between Democratic candidate Scott Colom and Republican candidate Cindy Hyde-Smith, every single vote counts.

esquire.com · Today
Democrats Cling to Narrow Leads in Last 2 Senate Races

One of the biggest surprises of the 2026 midterms—a close Senate race in Mississippi—remains in limbo. Democrat Scott Colom leads by 1,813 votes over Republican Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith with 96% of the ballots counted, reports NBC News . Colom's lead has been in…

Newser · Today
‘Pick another protein’: A cattle rancher senator’s answer on beef prices could give Democrats their first Mississippi Senate win since 1982

Three years ago, Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith made sure Scott Colom would not become a federal judge. Now, he may take her Senate seat. President Joe Biden nominated Colom, a district attorney in northeast Mississippi, to the federal bench in 2022, and Mississippi’s…

Biztoc.com · Today