Democratic
Jermaine Johnson
Major-party general-election nominee.
← all governor races
Jermaine Johnson vs. Alan Wilson: South Carolina governor election, 2026
Jermaine Johnson vs. Alan Wilson. Incumbent term-limited. Republican hold..
VotePredictor forecast (our model)
Alan Wilson favored
Safe R
99%
chance to win
R+13.3
predicted margin
Poll-driven model · 8 matched polls. Full forecast history and methodology → · Today's article: every poll and forecast →
Republican
Alan Wilson
Major-party general-election nominee.
Other listed candidates
- Michael Addison · United Citizens
- Walid Hakim · Green
Polls
The polls behind it
10 polls · 8 in today's forecast · newest firstDimmed polls are more than 61 days old. They stay on the record, but today's forecast no longer counts them. Each pollster name links to the poll's source; the grade under it is its VotePredictor grade from past elections. Margin is the poll as published. The ± under the sample size is the 95% margin of error on each candidate's share, from the sample size (the gap between them is about twice as uncertain). VotePredictor adjusted (“Our adj.” on small screens) is not a poll: it is our correction of that poll, for its pollster's record in past elections and for registered-voter or all-adult samples. It is the number our forecast reads.
PollsterDateSampleMarginOur adj.VotePredictor adjusted
Other forecasts
VotePredictor (ours)
R 99%
a probability from our model
Cook
Solid R≈ R 99%
as of Oct. 29, 2026
DDHQ
Likely R≈ R 90%
as of Nov. 3, 2026
Fox
Solid R≈ R 99%
as of Nov. 1, 2026
IE
Solid R≈ R 99%
as of Oct. 29, 2026
NBC
Solid R≈ R 99%
as of Nov. 3, 2026
RCP
Likely R≈ R 90%
as of Nov. 1, 2026
Sabato
Safe R≈ R 99%
as of Nov. 2, 2026
Silver
Solid R≈ R 99%
as of Nov. 3, 2026
The source we collect records each outlet's rating category, not a probability; some of these outlets run models with their own numbers on their sites. The ≈ figure is the standard conversion of the category (Toss-up 50%, Tilt 60%, Lean 75%, Likely 90%, Solid 99%), the one our scorecard grades them on, not a number they published. They remain independent of VotePredictor. Sources and update dates ↗
Independent models
Win probabilities published by independent statistical models, shown with credit as their terms allow: Who Shows Up (whoshowsup.net), by Kurt Wirth. These are their numbers, not ratings converted by us, and not VotePredictor's. The better-known model forecasters (Decision Desk HQ, FiftyPlusOne, Silver Bulletin, the Economist) don't permit republishing their probabilities, so they appear above by rating only.
Past results
Every South Carolina election for governor we hold a result for.
YearWinnerMargin
Candidate news
Republican Alan Wilson Wins South Carolina Governor’s Race
Republican South Carolina Attorney General Alan Wilson defeated Democrat state Rep. Jermaine Johnson in the contest to succeed Henry McMaster to become the state’s next governor. The post Republican Alan Wilson Wins South Carolina Governor’s Race appeared fir…
Breitbart News · November 4, 2026
Kamala Harris Has Her Eye on Today’s Gubernatorial Races
Politics / November 3, 2026 Kamala Harris Has Her Eye on Today’s Gubernatorial Races The former vice president reminds The Nation that, even if government is divided in DC, “a governor, as the chief executive of a state, can actually make thi…
Thenation.com · November 3, 2026
Black Candidates on the Ballot: Midterm Races To Watch
The November 2026 midterms are just as much about Black political power as they are about which party will control Congress. Black candidates across the country are gearing up to make history, proving that representation and who gets a seat at the table matte…
The Root · October 20, 2026
Exclusive: Wes Moore Bets on Bi-Partisanship in a Divisive Age
Is bipartisanship a lost art, or have we simply grown too disillusioned with establishment leaders to recognize a bridge-builder when we see one? Near sacred ground in Oklahoma City — blocks from the site of the deadliest act of domestic terrorism on Ameri…
The Root · August 6, 2026
Alan Wilson wins GOP nomination for South Carolina governor after dual Trump endorsement
State Attorney General Alan Wilson has won the Republican nomination for governor of South Carolina, NBC News projected Tuesday, after a closely watched runoff that featured President Donald Trump’s unusual double endorsement of two candidates. Wilson is now …
Freerepublic.com · June 23, 2026
Democrats saw a stunning South Carolina upset coming. They kept it secret.
The Scoop As soon as Republican Sen. Darline Graham won the GOP nomination to replace her late brother in August, Democrat Annie Andrews made her move. Andrews immediately began spending more than $5 million on advertising in South Carolina’s Senate race at…
Semafor.com · November 4, 2026
'Political malpractice': Republicans rattled as Trump races to rescue ruby-red Senate seat
President Donald Trump is heading to South Carolina on Wednesday for the second time in two months in an attempt to rescue a Senate seat his party considered safe until recently – and some Republicans are furious they have to defend it at all.Republican Sen. …
Raw Story · October 21, 2026
Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick visits Century Aluminum Mt. Holly, Celebrate Expansion with South Carolina Leaders
CHICAGO, July 27, 2026 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- United States Secretary of Commerce Howard Lutnick, Senior Counselor to President Trump Dr. Peter Navarro and South Carolina Attorney General Alan Wilson today joined CEO of Century Aluminum Company (NASDAQ: CENX), J…
GlobeNewswire · July 27, 2026