Actual result
R+8.0
Final polls said
R+16.2
1 late poll · ✓
Model predicted
R+24.4
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Trafalgar Group | R+16.2 | 8.2 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | R+24.4 | 16.4 | ✓ |
Polls (3)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trafalgar Group | 2018-10-30 | 3792 | R+16.2 | 8 |
| Trafalgar Group | 2018-10-13 | 4830 | R+23.4 | 15 |
| Trafalgar Group | 2018-09-28 | 2692 | R+14.0 | 6 |