Actual result
R+4.5
Final polls said
R+8.8
4 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+9.5
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | EMC Research | R+5.0 | 0.5 | ✓ |
| 2 | Crantford Research | R+2.0 | 2.5 | ✓ |
| 3 | Winthrop University Center for Public Opinion & Policy Research | R+9.0 | 4.5 | ✓ |
| 4 | VotePredictor | R+9.5 | 5.1 | ✓ |
| 5 | Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | R+10.0 | 5.5 | ✓ |
| 6 | InsiderAdvantage | R+14.0 | 9.5 | ✓ |
Polls (9)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2010-10-22 | 500 | R+10.0 | 6 |
| InsiderAdvantage | 2010-10-19 | 878 | R+14.0 | 10 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2010-10-19 | 500 | R+9.0 | 5 |
| Crantford Research | 2010-10-18 | 653 | R+2.0 | 2 |
| Winthrop University Center for Public Opinion & Policy Research | 2010-10-07 | 741 | R+9.0 | 5 |
| EMC Research | 2010-10-03 | 500 | R+5.0 | 1 |
| Crantford Research | 2010-09-30 | 634 | R+4.0 | 0 |
| EMC Research | 2010-09-26 | 500 | R+10.0 | 6 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2010-09-22 | 500 | R+17.0 | 13 |