Actual result
R+10.3
Final polls said
R+18.8
5 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+17.7
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | YouGov | R+12.0 | 1.7 | ✓ |
| 2 | SurveyUSA | R+17.0 | 6.7 | ✓ |
| 3 | VotePredictor | R+17.7 | 7.3 | ✓ |
| 4 | Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | R+23.0 | 12.7 | ✓ |
| 5 | Clemson University | R+27.0 | 16.7 | ✓ |
Polls (7)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyUSA | 2006-11-03 | 485 | R+17.0 | 7 |
| YouGov | 2006-10-31 | 399 | R+12.0 | 2 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2006-10-23 | 500 | R+23.0 | 13 |
| Clemson University | 2006-10-21 | 500 | R+27.0 | 17 |
| SurveyUSA | 2006-10-15 | 453 | R+15.0 | 5 |
| SurveyUSA | 2006-09-27 | 459 | R+4.0 | 6 |
| SurveyUSA | 2006-09-18 | 502 | R+13.0 | 3 |