South Carolina Governor
Alan Wilson (R) is the clear favorite to win the 2026 South Carolina Governor race — about a 93% chance, winning by about 10 points in the projection, and the lead has grown lately. Updated daily from 2 polls.
How the odds moved
VotePredictor Elections' win probability for each party, rerun from the polls available on each date — hover the chart to read any day. The dashed line is even odds.
What the markets say
Chance of a Democratic winMarket prices are shown for comparison and are never an input to the forecast — a 2024 test found blending Polymarket in made the model's calls measurably worse. Where the two disagree, one of them is wrong, and the track record is the only way to find out which.
Why this forecast
This forecast is poll-driven: 2 polls of the race so far. After weighting them by recency and correcting each pollster's house effect, the model (TabPFN) predicts R+9.8 — a 93% Republican win. With only a poll or two this early, the forecast stays cautious and leans partly on the seat's history.
Latest news
- Exclusive: Wes Moore Bets on Bi-Partisanship in a Divisive Age
Is bipartisanship a lost art, or have we simply grown too disillusioned with establishment leaders to recognize a bridge-builder when we see one? Near sacred ground in Oklahoma City — blocks from the site of the deadliest act of domestic terrorism on Ameri…
The Root · August 6, 2026 - Alan Wilson wins GOP nomination for South Carolina governor after dual Trump endorsement
State Attorney General Alan Wilson has won the Republican nomination for governor of South Carolina, NBC News projected Tuesday, after a closely watched runoff that featured President Donald Trump’s unusual double endorsement of two candidates. Wilson is now …
Freerepublic.com · June 23, 2026 - Sources: S.C. Democrats Pushing Only Black Candidate From 2026 Primary
South Carolina Democrats are reportedly leaning on state representative Jermaine Johnson to pull out of the 2026 governor’s race – thus making way for their preferred candidate, multimillionaire William M. “Billy” Webster IV. Johnson, 39, of Hopkins, S.C. is …
Freerepublic.com · March 20, 2026 
South Carolina to build first monument to an African AmericanBEAUFORT, SOUTH CAROLINA — South Carolina is preparing to put up its first individual statue for an African American on its Statehouse lawn, honoring a man who put on Confederate clothes in order to steal a slaveholder's ship and sail his family and a dozen o…
VOA News · November 2, 2024
Where to Stream Oscar-Nominated MoviesOscar season has always been a great time for movie buffs. And though we have to wait until the 96th Academy Awards ceremony commences on Sunday, March 10 to see which of the nominated films take the prize, it’s a perfect time to watch any (or all) of the fil…
Soundandvision.com · February 29, 2024
- Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick visits Century Aluminum Mt. Holly, Celebrate Expansion with South Carolina Leaders
CHICAGO, July 27, 2026 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- United States Secretary of Commerce Howard Lutnick, Senior Counselor to President Trump Dr. Peter Navarro and South Carolina Attorney General Alan Wilson today joined CEO of Century Aluminum Company (NASDAQ: CENX), J…
GlobeNewswire · July 27, 2026 - Lt. Gov. Pamela Evette releases statement after runoff defeat - WIS News 10
Lt. Gov. Pamela Evette releases statement after runoff defeatWIS News 10 New York House District 13 Primary 2026 Live ResultsNBC News Alan Wilson Wins Republican Primary for South Carolina GovernorThe New York Times Trump now says either Republican candidate …
Slashdot.org · June 24, 2026 - Trump endorsement streak gets unusual boost with South Carolina GOP governor nomination - Fox News
Trump endorsement streak gets unusual boost with South Carolina GOP governor nominationFox News New York House District 13 Primary 2026 Live ResultsNBC News Alan Wilson Wins Republican Primary for South Carolina GovernorThe New York Times Trump now says eithe…
Slashdot.org · June 24, 2026 - Alan Wilson Wins Republican Primary for South Carolina Governor - The New York Times
Alan Wilson Wins Republican Primary for South Carolina GovernorThe New York Times New York House District 13 Primary 2026 Live ResultsNBC News Trump now says either Republican candidate would be a good pick in South Carolina's governor runoffAP News Trump tri…
Slashdot.org · June 24, 2026 - Alan Wilson, boosted by Trump’s late co-endorsement, wins South Carolina governor runoff - Politico
Alan Wilson, boosted by Trump’s late co-endorsement, wins South Carolina governor runoffPolitico New York House District 13 Primary 2026 Live ResultsNBC News Alan Wilson Wins Republican Primary for South Carolina GovernorThe New York Times Trump now says eith…
Slashdot.org · June 24, 2026
Headlines via NewsAPI, refreshed daily.
The polls behind it
2 polls · newest firstFrequently asked questions
Who is winning the 2026 South Carolina Governor race?
VotePredictor's model favors Alan Wilson (R), with roughly a 93% chance of winning and a projected margin of R+9.8.
What do the polls say in the South Carolina Governor race?
There are 2 polls of this race. The most recent, from Hart Research (2026-08-15), showed R+8.0. VotePredictor's poll-weighted projection is R+9.8.
Who are the candidates in the 2026 South Carolina Governor race?
Jermaine Johnson is the Democratic candidate; Alan Wilson is the Republican.
When is the 2026 South Carolina Governor election?
Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026. VotePredictor refreshes this forecast every day until then.
Has the 2026 South Carolina Governor forecast changed recently?
Yes — over the polls collected so far, Alan Wilson's (R) lead has widened to 93%. The chart above tracks the full trajectory.
How does VotePredictor forecast the South Carolina Governor race?
It is a poll-driven model. Recent polls are weighted by recency and adjusted for each pollster's historical house effect, then a machine-learning model (TabPFN) trained on U.S. races from 1998–2025 turns them into a projected margin and win probability.