Actual result
R+14.5
Final polls said
R+18.5
2 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+15.9
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor | R+15.9 | 1.4 | ✓ |
| 2 | YouGov | R+17.0 | 2.5 | ✓ |
| 3 | Winthrop University Center for Public Opinion & Policy Research | R+10.0 | 4.5 | ✓ |
| 4 | Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc. | R+20.0 | 5.5 | ✓ |
| 5 | Public Policy Polling | R+5.0 | 9.5 | ✓ |
| 6 | Crantford Research | R+4.0 | 10.5 | ✓ |
Polls (6)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YouGov | 2014-10-20 | 1566 | R+17.0 | 3 |
| Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc. | 2014-10-16 | 917 | R+20.0 | 6 |
| Crantford Research | 2014-09-29 | 688 | R+4.0 | 10 |
| YouGov | 2014-09-26 | 2663 | R+17.0 | 3 |
| Winthrop University Center for Public Opinion & Policy Research | 2014-09-25 | 1082 | R+10.0 | 4 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2014-09-04 | 793 | R+5.0 | 9 |