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Toss-up · 2020 House
California House
In the 2020 California House race, Devin Nunes (R) won by about 8 points.
Actual result
R+8.4
Final polls said
R+5.0
1 late poll · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Strategies 360 | R+5.0 | 3.4 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | The Economist | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 3 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 97% | 0.001 | ✓ |
| 4 | JHK Forecasts | Rep 93% | 0.005 | ✓ |
| 5 | VotePredictor Elections | Rep 90% | 0.009 | ✓ |
| 6 | Cook Political | Rep 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 7 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Rep 86% | 0.018 | ✓ |
The polls behind it
1 poll · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Strategies 3602020-09-303
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2020 California House race?
Devin Nunes (R) won, by about 8.4 points (R+8.4).
When was the 2020 California House election held?
It was held in November 2020.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.