Actual result
R+17.1
Final polls said
R+7.0
1 late poll · ✓
Model predicted
R+11.4
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor | R+11.4 | 5.7 | ✓ |
| 2 | Alvarado Strategies | R+7.0 | 10.1 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Elections Daily | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 98% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 3 | JHK Forecasts | Rep 95% | 0.003 | ✓ |
| 4 | VotePredictor | Rep 95% | 0.003 | ✓ |
| 5 | The Economist | Rep 94% | 0.004 | ✓ |
| 6 | Race to the WH | Rep 93% | 0.005 | ✓ |
| 7 | CNalysis | Rep 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 8 | Cook Political | Rep 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 9 | Fox News | Rep 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 10 | Inside Elections | Rep 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 11 | RealClearPolitics | Rep 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 12 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 13 | Split Ticket | Rep 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 14 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Rep 78% | 0.050 | ✓ |
Polls (1)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alvarado Strategies | 2022-09-19 | 352 | R+7.0 | 10 |