Toss-up · 2022 House

Florida House

In the 2022 Florida House race, Laurel Lee (R) won by about 17 points.

Laurel Lee· Incumbent · voting record →

Actual result

R+17.1

Final polls said

R+7.0

1 late poll · ✓

VotePredictor Elections predicted

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Winner

Rep

"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).

Final rankings

How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).

Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result

#	Pollster	Final call	Miss	Called
1	Alvarado Strategies	R+7.0	10.1	✓

Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier

#	Forecaster	Win prob	Brier	Called
1	Elections Daily	Rep 99%	0.000	✓
2	FiveThirtyEight	Rep 98%	0.000	✓
3	JHK Forecasts	Rep 95%	0.003	✓
4	VotePredictor Elections	Rep 95%	0.003	✓
5	The Economist	Rep 94%	0.004	✓
6	Race to the WH	Rep 93%	0.005	✓
7	CNalysis	Rep 90%	0.010	✓
8	Cook Political	Rep 90%	0.010	✓
9	Fox News	Rep 90%	0.010	✓
10	Inside Elections	Rep 90%	0.010	✓
11	RealClearPolitics	Rep 90%	0.010	✓
12	Sabato's Crystal Ball	Rep 90%	0.010	✓
13	Split Ticket	Rep 90%	0.010	✓
14	DDHQ/Decision Desk	Rep 78%	0.050	✓