Actual result
R+20.2
Final polls said
R+26.0
1 late poll · ✓
Model predicted
R+4.1
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tarrance Group | R+26.0 | 5.8 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | R+4.1 | 16.1 | ✓ |
Polls (3)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tarrance Group | 2008-10-15 | 300 | R+26.0 | 6 |
| Tarrance Group | 2008-10-09 | 300 | D+25.0 | 45 |
| Tarrance Group | 2008-09-07 | 300 | D+7.0 | 27 |