VotePredictor
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Florida District 26 election, 2026

Nicole Locklin vs. Mario Díaz-Balart on a newly enacted 2026 district map. Today's article: every forecast for this race →

VotePredictor forecast
Mario Díaz-Balart favored
Safe R · predicted margin R+16.0
99%
chance to win
2024 presidential margin
R+18.5
2026 national environment
D+8.0
District polls
none
Forecast spread
±6.6 points

Margin from the district's presidential lean on its 2026 lines, one fitted intercept and the national environment as a uniform swing; the win probability adds a decaying incumbency premium (Republican incumbent running). No district poll is blended in.

Democratic

Nicole Locklin

Major-party general-election nominee.

Republican

Mario Díaz-Balart

Major-party general-election nominee.

Other listed candidates

  • Deborah Ann Meidinger Hosey · Independent

Polls

No district-level 2026 general-election poll is currently in VotePredictor's verified polling feed for FL-26. The forecast above is the model alone: lean, incumbency and the national environment.

Campaign money

FEC reports through October 14, 2026
Mario Díaz-BalartREP · incumbent$2.8M raised
Spent $2.9MCash on hand $1.7M0% from donors under $200
Top contributors, industries and states

Contributors

  1. AMERICAN CRYSTAL SUGAR COMPANY PAC$10k
  2. SWISHER INTERNATIONAL INC PAC FUND$10k
  3. NATIONAL MULTIFAMILY HOUSING COUNCIL (NMHC PAC)$8k
  4. BLACH, BENJAMIN$7k
  5. CLEMENTI, BRYANA$7k

Industries

  1. Retired$174k
  2. Legal & Professional Services$115k
  3. Self-Employed & Freelance$85k
  4. Finance, Insurance & Real Estate$83k
  5. Defense & Aerospace$78k

States

  1. FL$592k
  2. CA$223k
  3. VA$169k
  4. DC$103k
  5. NY$80k
Every contribution on GovMoneyGraph ↗
Nicole LocklinDEM$600k raised
Spent $490kCash on hand $110kDebts $250k46% from donors under $200Self-funded $251k
Top contributors, industries and states

Contributors

  1. LOCKLIN, NICOLE$251k
  2. ROSSBACH, PETER$5k
  3. SCHULER, STEPHEN$4k
  4. FERTIK, ROBERT$3k
  5. ALLRED, JAMES$2k

Industries

  1. Unemployed$23k
  2. Retired$5k
  3. Self-Employed & Freelance$4k
  4. Technology & Communications$3k
  5. Finance, Insurance & Real Estate$2k

States

  1. FL$19k
  2. CA$11k
  3. NY$6k
  4. IL$6k
  5. NH$5k
Every contribution on GovMoneyGraph ↗
Deborah Ann Meidinger HoseyNPA$11k raised
Spent $8kCash on hand $2kDebts $9k3% from donors under $200Self-funded $10k
Top contributors, industries and states

Contributors

  1. MEIDINGER HOSEY, DEBORAH ANN MRS.$10k
  2. HOSEY, EUGENE$261
  3. HENDERSON, DEBORAH$250

States

  1. NC$261
  2. DE$250
Every contribution on GovMoneyGraph ↗

What each candidate's own campaign committees reported for the 2025–26 cycle; outside spending by PACs and parties is not included. Industries are classified from donors' reported employers. The House forecast's win probability reads the two nominees' shares of individual contributions shown here, a small term that never moves the predicted margin. Data: GovMoneyGraph, based on FEC records.

Other forecasts

We have not yet ingested a district rating from these independent forecasters for FL-26; links go to their current national House ratings. Missing is shown as missing—not converted into a probability.

Cook Political Report
View House ratings ↗
Inside Elections
View House ratings ↗
Sabato's Crystal Ball
View House analysis ↗

Past results

Every election in Florida's 26th district we hold a result for. District numbers are reused across redistricting, so older rows may cover different ground than the seat does today.

YearWinnerMargin
2018Debbie Mucarsel-Powell(D)D+1.8
2016Carlos Curbelo(R)R+11.8
2014Carlos Curbelo(R)R+2.9
2012Joe Garcia(D)D+10.6

Candidate news

No recent verified candidate stories are available in the site's news feed for this race yet.

Candidate field source: 2026 House election roster ↗

Nearby in the directory: FL-25 · FL-27