Actual result
R+11.8
Final polls said
D+1.0
1 late poll · ✗
Model predicted
R+2.0
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor | R+2.0 | 9.8 | ✓ |
| 2 | Expedition Strategies | D+1.0 | 12.8 | ✗ |
Polls (1)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Expedition Strategies | 2016-09-11 | 412 | D+1.0 | 13 |