Actual result
D+10.6
Final polls said
R+2.5
1 late poll · ✗
Model predicted
D+1.5
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Benenson Strategy Group | D+11.0 | 0.4 | ✓ |
| 2 | McLaughlin & Associates | D+10.0 | 0.6 | ✓ |
| 3 | GBAO | D+9.0 | 1.6 | ✓ |
| 4 | Public Policy Polling | D+7.0 | 3.6 | ✓ |
| 5 | VotePredictor | D+1.5 | 9.1 | ✓ |
| 6 | St. Pete Polls | R+2.5 | 13.1 | ✗ |
Polls (6)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| St. Pete Polls | 2012-10-16 | 469 | R+2.5 | 13 |
| Benenson Strategy Group | 2012-10-10 | 400 | D+11.0 | 0 |
| St. Pete Polls | 2012-10-04 | 473 | R+2.9 | 14 |
| McLaughlin & Associates | 2012-09-25 | 750 | D+10.0 | 1 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2012-09-12 | 578 | D+7.0 | 4 |
| GBAO | 2012-09-10 | 400 | D+9.0 | 2 |