Actual result
R+2.9
Final polls said
R+1.0
3 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+0.6
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Saint Leo University Polling Institute | R+4.0 | 1.1 | ✓ |
| 2 | McLaughlin & Associates | R+4.0 | 1.1 | ✓ |
| 3 | VotePredictor | R+0.6 | 2.4 | ✓ |
| 4 | DCCC Targeting and Analytics Department | D+5.0 | 7.9 | ✗ |
Polls (3)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saint Leo University Polling Institute | 2014-10-03 | 400 | R+4.0 | 1 |
| DCCC Targeting and Analytics Department | 2014-09-30 | 400 | D+5.0 | 8 |
| McLaughlin & Associates | 2014-09-10 | 400 | R+4.0 | 1 |