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Toss-up · 2020 House
Florida House
In the 2020 Florida House race, María Elvira Salazar (R) won by about 3 points.
Actual result
R+2.7
Final polls said
D+2.1
2 late polls · ✗
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1892 Polling | R+2.7 | 0.0 | ✓ |
| 2 | Bendixen & Amandi International | D+7.0 | 9.7 | ✗ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 75% | 0.569 | ✗ |
| 2 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 81% | 0.656 | ✗ |
| 3 | VotePredictor Elections | Dem 86% | 0.732 | ✗ |
| 4 | Cook Political | Dem 90% | 0.810 | ✗ |
| 5 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 90% | 0.810 | ✗ |
| 6 | JHK Forecasts | Dem 92% | 0.846 | ✗ |
| 7 | The Economist | Dem 93% | 0.866 | ✗ |
The polls behind it
2 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Bendixen & Amandi International2020-10-1110
1892 Polling2020-09-040
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2020 Florida House race?
María Elvira Salazar (R) won, by about 2.7 points (R+2.7).
When was the 2020 Florida House election held?
It was held in November 2020.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.