Actual result
R+2.7
Final polls said
D+2.1
2 late polls · ✗
Model predicted
D+5.0
✗
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1892 Polling | R+2.7 | 0.0 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | D+5.0 | 7.7 | ✗ |
| 3 | Bendixen & Amandi International | D+7.0 | 9.7 | ✗ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 75% | 0.569 | ✗ |
| 2 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 81% | 0.656 | ✗ |
| 3 | VotePredictor | Dem 86% | 0.741 | ✗ |
| 4 | Cook Political | Dem 90% | 0.810 | ✗ |
| 5 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 90% | 0.810 | ✗ |
| 6 | JHK Forecasts | Dem 92% | 0.846 | ✗ |
| 7 | The Economist | Dem 93% | 0.866 | ✗ |
Polls (2)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bendixen & Amandi International | 2020-10-11 | 500 | D+7.0 | 10 |
| 1892 Polling | 2020-09-04 | 400 | R+2.7 | 0 |