Florida House

Actual result

R+14.6

Final polls said

R+7.0

1 late poll · ✓

Model predicted

R+13.7

✓

Winner

Rep

"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).

Final rankings

How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).

Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result

#	Pollster	Final call	Miss	Called
1	VotePredictor	R+13.7	0.9	✓
2	University of North Florida	R+7.0	7.6	✓

Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier

#	Forecaster	Win prob	Brier	Called
1	Cook Political	Rep 99%	0.000	✓
2	Inside Elections	Rep 99%	0.000	✓
3	Sabato's Crystal Ball	Rep 99%	0.000	✓
4	CNalysis	Rep 99%	0.000	✓
5	JHK Forecasts	Rep 100%	0.000	✓
6	FiveThirtyEight	Rep 100%	0.000	✓
7	Race to the WH	Rep 99%	0.000	✓
8	DDHQ/Decision Desk	Rep 99%	0.000	✓
9	Elections Daily	Rep 99%	0.000	✓
10	RealClearPolitics	Rep 99%	0.000	✓
11	Fox News	Rep 99%	0.000	✓
12	The Economist	Rep 100%	0.000	✓
13	VotePredictor	Rep 98%	0.001	✓
14	Split Ticket	Rep 90%	0.010	✓

Polls (1)

Pollster	Date	n	Poll	Miss
University of North Florida	2024-10-18	337	R+7.0	8