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Toss-up · 2022 House
Florida House
In the 2022 Florida House race, Aaron Bean (R) won by about 21 points.
Actual result
R+20.9
Final polls said
R+12.0
1 late poll · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | University of North Florida Public Opinion Research Lab | R+12.0 | 8.9 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cook Political | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | The Economist | Rep 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 3 | Elections Daily | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 4 | Fox News | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 5 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 6 | Inside Elections | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 7 | JHK Forecasts | Rep 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 8 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 9 | Split Ticket | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 10 | VotePredictor Elections | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 11 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Rep 96% | 0.001 | ✓ |
| 12 | Race to the WH | Rep 97% | 0.001 | ✓ |
| 13 | CNalysis | Rep 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 14 | RealClearPolitics | Rep 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
The polls behind it
1 poll · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
University of North Florida Public Opinion Research Lab2022-10-249
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2022 Florida House race?
Aaron Bean (R) won, by about 20.9 points (R+20.9).
When was the 2022 Florida House election held?
It was held in November 2022.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.