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Toss-up · 2020 House
Florida House
In the 2020 Florida House race, John Rutherford (R) won by about 22 points.
Actual result
R+22.2
Final polls said
R+19.0
1 late poll · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | University of North Florida Public Opinion Research Lab | R+19.0 | 3.2 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cook Political | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | The Economist | Rep 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 3 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 4 | JHK Forecasts | Rep 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 5 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 6 | VotePredictor Elections | Rep 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 7 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Rep 96% | 0.002 | ✓ |
The polls behind it
1 poll · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
University of North Florida Public Opinion Research Lab2020-10-033
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2020 Florida House race?
John Rutherford (R) won, by about 22.2 points (R+22.2).
When was the 2020 Florida House election held?
It was held in November 2020.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.