Democratic
Ed Case
Incumbent representative for HI-1. Voting record, ideology and biography →
VotePredictor forecast
Ed Case favored
Safe D · predicted margin D+42.0
100%
chance to win
2024 presidential lean
D+26.02026 national environment
D+6.3Model uncertainty
±6.9 pointsFundamentals model using district presidential lean, incumbency and the national environment. It is not a poll average.
Republican
Adriel Lam
Major-party general-election nominee.
Other listed candidates
- Nathan Berning · Independent
- Jordan Conley · Green
Polls
No district-level 2026 general-election poll is currently in VotePredictor's verified polling feed for HI-1. The forecast above uses fundamentals only.
Other forecasts
We have not yet ingested a district rating from these independent forecasters for HI-1; links go to their current national House ratings. Missing is shown as missing—not converted into a probability.
Past results
Every election in Hawaii's 1st district we hold a result for. District numbers are reused across redistricting, so older rows may cover different ground than the seat does today.
YearWinnerMargin
Candidate news
Bipartisan U.S. Congressional Visit Highlights Expanding Partnership with Kazakhstan
A bipartisan six-member delegation from the U.S. House of Representatives met with President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev in Astana on August 25, two days after Kazakhstan elected the first members of its new unicameral Kurultai. Tokayev called the timing symbolic a…
Freerepublic.com · August 27, 2026
Hawaii Democratic Rep. Ed Case wins primary
Hawaii Democrat Rep. Ed Case on Saturday beat back a primary challenge from his political left. The 73-year-old centrist, who has represented the state's 2nd Congressional District since 2019, was the projected winner over state Sen. Jarrett Keohokalole, 42, …
Biztoc.com · August 9, 2026
Rep. Ed Case defeats progressive primary challenger in Hawaii's 1st District - CBS News
Rep. Ed Case defeats progressive primary challenger in Hawaii's 1st DistrictCBS News Moderate Democrat in Hawaii Easily Defeats Progressive House ChallengerThe New York Times Ed Case wins Democratic nomination for U.S. House, fending off challenge from the le…
Slashdot.org · August 9, 2026
Ed Case Defeats Challenger From Left in Hawaii House Race
Rep. Ed Case has fended off a challenge from Hawaii's Democratic left flank. The 73-year-old congressman won the primary, per the AP , over state Sen. Jarrett Keohokalole, 42, who campaigned on bringing a "new generation" to Washington. Case, who was first el…
Newser · August 9, 2026
Candidate field source: 2026 House election roster ↗