Democratic
Ed Case
Incumbent representative for HI-1. Voting record, ideology and biography →
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Hawaii District 1 election, 2026
Ed Case vs. Adriel Lam. Today's article: every forecast for this race →
VotePredictor forecast
Ed Case favored
Safe D · predicted margin D+41.1
99%
chance to win
2024 presidential margin
D+25.02026 national environment
D+8.0District polls
noneForecast spread
±7.2 pointsMargin from the district's presidential lean on its 2026 lines, one fitted intercept and the national environment as a uniform swing; the win probability adds a decaying incumbency premium (Democratic incumbent running). No district poll is blended in.
Republican
Adriel Lam
Major-party general-election nominee.
Other listed candidates
- Jordan Conley · Green
- Nathan Berning · Independent
Polls
No district-level 2026 general-election poll is currently in VotePredictor's verified polling feed for HI-1. The forecast above is the model alone: lean, incumbency and the national environment.
Campaign money
FEC reports through October 14, 2026Ed CaseDEM · incumbent$1.3M raised
Spent $1.2MCash on hand $450k2% from donors under $200
Top contributors, industries and states
Contributors
Industries
- Unemployed$92k
- Finance, Insurance & Real Estate$70k
- Defense & Aerospace$57k
- Self-Employed & Freelance$43k
- Legal & Professional Services$32k
States
- HI$207k
- CA$84k
- VA$83k
- NY$63k
- TX$47k
Adriel LamREP— raised
Spent —Cash on hand —
What each candidate's own campaign committees reported for the 2025–26 cycle; outside spending by PACs and parties is not included. Industries are classified from donors' reported employers. The House forecast's win probability reads the two nominees' shares of individual contributions shown here, a small term that never moves the predicted margin. Data: GovMoneyGraph, based on FEC records.
Other forecasts
We have not yet ingested a district rating from these independent forecasters for HI-1; links go to their current national House ratings. Missing is shown as missing—not converted into a probability.
Past results
Every election in Hawaii's 1st district we hold a result for. District numbers are reused across redistricting, so older rows may cover different ground than the seat does today.
YearWinnerMargin
Candidate news
Bipartisan U.S. Congressional Visit Highlights Expanding Partnership with Kazakhstan
A bipartisan six-member delegation from the U.S. House of Representatives met with President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev in Astana on August 25, two days after Kazakhstan elected the first members of its new unicameral Kurultai. Tokayev called the timing symbolic a…
Freerepublic.com · August 27, 2026
Hawaii Democratic Rep. Ed Case wins primary
Hawaii Democrat Rep. Ed Case on Saturday beat back a primary challenge from his political left. The 73-year-old centrist, who has represented the state's 2nd Congressional District since 2019, was the projected winner over state Sen. Jarrett Keohokalole, 42, …
Biztoc.com · August 9, 2026
Rep. Ed Case defeats progressive primary challenger in Hawaii's 1st District - CBS News
Rep. Ed Case defeats progressive primary challenger in Hawaii's 1st DistrictCBS News Moderate Democrat in Hawaii Easily Defeats Progressive House ChallengerThe New York Times Ed Case wins Democratic nomination for U.S. House, fending off challenge from the le…
Slashdot.org · August 9, 2026
Ed Case Defeats Challenger From Left in Hawaii House Race
Rep. Ed Case has fended off a challenge from Hawaii's Democratic left flank. The 73-year-old congressman won the primary, per the AP , over state Sen. Jarrett Keohokalole, 42, who campaigned on bringing a "new generation" to Washington. Case, who was first el…
Newser · August 9, 2026
Candidate field source: 2026 House election roster ↗