Democratic
Jill Tokuda
Incumbent representative for HI-2. Voting record, ideology and biography →
VotePredictor forecast
Jill Tokuda favored
Safe D · predicted margin D+28.0
99%
chance to win
2024 presidential lean
D+22.02026 national environment
D+6.6District polls
noneForecast spread
±7.8 pointsMargin from the district's presidential lean on its 2026 lines, one fitted intercept and the national environment as a uniform swing; the win probability adds a decaying incumbency premium (Democratic incumbent running). No district poll is blended in.
Republican
Brenton Awa
Major-party general-election nominee.
Polls
No district-level 2026 general-election poll is currently in VotePredictor's verified polling feed for HI-2. The forecast above is the model alone: lean, incumbency and the national environment.
Other forecasts
We have not yet ingested a district rating from these independent forecasters for HI-2; links go to their current national House ratings. Missing is shown as missing—not converted into a probability.
Past results
Every election in Hawaii's 2nd district we hold a result for. District numbers are reused across redistricting, so older rows may cover different ground than the seat does today.
Candidate news
Hawaii rep cruises to Dem primary win after challenger arrested for beach brawl
Progressive Rep. Jill Tokuda cruised past three Democratic primary challengers in Hawaii's 2nd Congressional District to face Republican Brenton Awa.
Fox News · August 9, 2026
Hawaii Democrat’s Beach Rampage Ends With One-Punch Knockout
Police arrested a Hawaii Democratic congressional candidate Aug. 1 after a violent altercation with another beachgoer at Keawakapu Beach in South Kihei, Hawaii. Authorities charged 40-year-old Kirill Basin with two counts of first-degree terroristic threateni…
Freerepublic.com · August 5, 2026
Hawaii candidate knocked out cold after allegedly threatening couple on beach: report
A Hawaiian congressional candidate who got knocked out with a single punch after allegedly threatening a couple with a gun and pulling a knife on them was facing terrorism charges on Tuesday, according to reports.Democrat Kirill Basin, who is running for Cong…
Raw Story · August 4, 2026
Cursing, Unhinged Democratic Congressional Candidate Arrested After Violent Altercation on Keawakapu Beach (VIDEO)
Another violent, cursing Democrat takes a fall. Kirill Basin, a democratic candidate for Congress, was arrested on Keawakapu Beach on Saturday. Kirill is running against incumbent U.S. Rep. Jill Tokuda in Hawaii. He was arrested after a violent altercation at…
Freerepublic.com · August 4, 2026
Candidate field source: 2026 House election roster ↗