Actual result
D+3.9
Final polls said
D+2.3
3 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+3.8
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor | D+3.8 | 0.1 | ✓ |
| 2 | Global Strategy Group | D+7.0 | 3.1 | ✓ |
| 3 | MRG Research | EVEN | 3.9 | ✗ |
| 4 | Ward Research | EVEN | 3.9 | ✗ |
Polls (4)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Global Strategy Group | 2014-10-20 | 400 | D+7.0 | 3 |
| MRG Research | 2014-10-18 | 604 | EVEN | 4 |
| Ward Research | 2014-10-15 | 354 | EVEN | 4 |
| MRG Research | 2014-09-13 | 551 | R+4.0 | 8 |