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Toss-up · 2014 House
Hawaii House
In the 2014 Hawaii House race, K. Mark Takai (D) won by about 4 points.
Actual result
D+3.9
Final polls said
D+2.3
3 late polls · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Global Strategy Group | D+7.0 | 3.1 | ✓ |
| 2 | MRG Research | EVEN | 3.9 | ✗ |
| 3 | Ward Research | EVEN | 3.9 | ✗ |
The polls behind it
4 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Global Strategy Group2014-10-203
MRG Research2014-10-184
Ward Research2014-10-154
MRG Research2014-09-138
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2014 Hawaii House race?
K. Mark Takai (D) won, by about 3.9 points (D+3.9).
When was the 2014 Hawaii House election held?
It was held in November 2014.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.