Actual result
D+60.1
Final polls said
D+50.0
1 late poll · ✓
Model predicted
D+47.7
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MRG Research | D+50.0 | 10.1 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | D+47.7 | 12.4 | ✓ |
Polls (2)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MRG Research | 2014-10-18 | 517 | D+50.0 | 10 |
| MRG Research | 2014-09-13 | 504 | D+53.0 | 7 |