Democratic
Christina Bohannan
Major-party general-election nominee.
VotePredictor forecast
Mariannette Miller-Meeks favored
Toss-up · predicted margin R+0.7
55%
chance to win
2024 presidential lean
R+8.02026 national environment
D+6.6District polls
1, averaging D+5.0Forecast spread
±6.1 pointsMargin from the district's presidential lean on its 2026 lines, one fitted intercept and the national environment as a uniform swing; the win probability adds a decaying incumbency premium (Republican incumbent running). The 1 district poll are blended in by inverse variance, about 39% of the weight: the model alone said R+4.3.
Republican
Mariannette Miller-Meeks
Incumbent representative for IA-1. Voting record, ideology and biography →
Other listed candidates
- Michael Bridgford · Independent
Polls
The polls behind it
1 poll · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMargin
The Bullfinch Group2026-07-16D+5.0
These polls move the forecast: their average is blended into the model's own margin by inverse variance, with about 39% of the weight on the polls (a single poll gets about half; more polls, more weight). The rule was preregistered and validated on 321 polled districts from 2018–2024. See methodology.
Other forecasts
We have not yet ingested a district rating from these independent forecasters for IA-1; links go to their current national House ratings. Missing is shown as missing—not converted into a probability.
Past results
Every election in Iowa's 1st district we hold a result for. District numbers are reused across redistricting, so older rows may cover different ground than the seat does today.
YearWinnerMargin
Candidate news
Republicans Pulling Money From Two GOP Incumbents
These two absolutely dreadful House members look like they'll soon be unemployed, as top Republican super PACs have pulled the plug on both. That usually means they think their races are not winnable. Source: New York Times Top Republican super PACs aligned w…
Crooksandliars.com · October 13, 2026
Republicans Yanking Cash From Incumbent Reps Tom Kean, Mariannette Miller-Meeks
Top Republican super PACs pulled spending supporting Republican Reps. Tom Kean Jr. of New Jersey and Mariannette Miller-Meeks of Iowa.
The Daily Caller · October 13, 2026
GOP Super PACs Effectively Concede 3 House Seats
Republican power players are quietly writing off some of their own. The New York Times ' Shane Goldmacher reports that two major GOP super PACs tied to President Trump and House leadership have cut off ad spending for Reps. Thomas Kean Jr. of New Jersey and M…
Newser · October 13, 2026
Republicans have already given up on three GOP-held seats – and two other races
National Republicans are pulling out of a handful of House races less than a month before the midterms, abandoning two sitting GOP lawmakers as the party tries to keep its losses from spreading.Super PACs aligned with President Donald Trump and House GOP lead…
Raw Story · October 13, 2026
Candidate field source: 2026 House election roster ↗