Democratic
Christina Bohannan
Major-party general-election nominee.
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Iowa District 1 election, 2026
Christina Bohannan vs. Mariannette Miller-Meeks. Today's article: every forecast for this race →
VotePredictor forecast
Christina Bohannan favored
Lean D · predicted margin D+4.4
80%
chance to win
2024 presidential margin
R+8.02026 national environment
D+8.0District polls
2, averaging D+10.5Forecast spread
±5.3 pointsMargin from the district's presidential lean on its 2026 lines, one fitted intercept and the national environment as a uniform swing; the win probability adds a decaying incumbency premium (Republican incumbent running). The 2 district polls are blended in by inverse variance, about 54% of the weight: the model alone said R+2.7.
Republican
Mariannette Miller-Meeks
Incumbent representative for IA-1. Voting record, ideology and biography →
Other listed candidates
- Michael Bridgford · Independent
Polls
The polls behind it
2 polls · newest firstEach pollster name links to the poll's source; the grade under it is its VotePredictor grade from past elections. Margin is the poll as published. The ± under the sample size is the 95% margin of error on each candidate's share, from the sample size (the gap between them is about twice as uncertain).
PollsterDateSampleMargin
These polls move the forecast: their average is blended into the model's own margin by inverse variance, with about 54% of the weight on the polls (a single poll gets about half; more polls, more weight). The rule was preregistered and validated on 321 polled districts from 2018–2024. See methodology.
Campaign money
FEC reports through October 14, 2026Christina BohannanDEM$9.9M raised
Spent $7.9MCash on hand $2.1M17% from donors under $200Self-funded $7k
Top contributors, industries and states
Contributors
Industries
- Unemployed$2.3M
- Retired$946k
- Self-Employed & Freelance$587k
- Finance, Insurance & Real Estate$266k
- Not Reported$182k
States
- IA$1.7M
- CA$1.2M
- NY$700k
- MA$580k
- IL$238k
Mariannette Miller-MeeksREP · incumbent$9.1M raised
Spent $7.8MCash on hand $1.7M15% from donors under $200Self-funded $19k
Top contributors, industries and states
Contributors
Industries
- Retired$1.3M
- Self-Employed & Freelance$206k
- Finance, Insurance & Real Estate$177k
- Legal & Professional Services$112k
- Manufacturing & Industrial$47k
States
- IA$1.0M
- FL$225k
- TX$224k
- CA$180k
- NY$151k
Michael BridgfordIND$338k raised
Spent $262kCash on hand $77kDebts $150k1% from donors under $200Self-funded $149k
Top contributors, industries and states
Contributors
Industries
- Unemployed$17k
- Not Reported$8k
- Self-Employed & Freelance$5k
- Retail, Food & Consumer Goods$4k
- Retired$4k
States
- TX$17k
- KY$14k
- FL$12k
- IL$7k
- CA$4k
What each candidate's own campaign committees reported for the 2025–26 cycle; outside spending by PACs and parties is not included. Industries are classified from donors' reported employers. The House forecast's win probability reads the two nominees' shares of individual contributions shown here, a small term that never moves the predicted margin. Data: GovMoneyGraph, based on FEC records.
Other forecasts
We have not yet ingested a district rating from these independent forecasters for IA-1; links go to their current national House ratings. Missing is shown as missing—not converted into a probability.
Past results
Every election in Iowa's 1st district we hold a result for. District numbers are reused across redistricting, so older rows may cover different ground than the seat does today.
YearWinnerMargin
Candidate news
Iowa GOP Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks ousted in rematch
Cracks in the GOP's dominance in the agriculture-heavy state widened in recent weeks as Mr. Trump's tariffs and the Iran war have hurt Iowans.
CBS News · November 4, 2026
‘He’s lying’: Republican unloads on Paralympian rival as Iowa Senate race gets heated
Josh Turek, the Democratic candidate for U.S. Senate, is facing criticism from both LGBTQ+ advocates and Republicans for a recent ad in which he said he opposed allowing transgender women to compete in women’s sports, and supported blocking Medicaid funding g…
Raw Story · October 27, 2026
Iowa Dem Josh Turek Rejects Immediate Deportation of Illegal Aliens, Incorrectly Links Reps. Miller-Meeks and Feenstra to Dignity Act
Obama-endorsed Iowa Democrat U.S. Senate nominee Josh Turek said illegal immigrants should not face immediate deportation during an exchange with NBC News anchor Tom Llamas, while inaccurately linking Republican Reps. Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R-IA) and Randy…
Breitbart News · October 22, 2026
Iowa Democrat’s new ad takes on anti-trans attacks without throwing transgender people under the bus
Christina Bohannan takes aim at Mariannette Miller-Meeks’ donors and voting record while pushing back on anti-trans sports attacks without retreating from support for LGBTQ+ Iowans.
Advocate.com · October 20, 2026
Candidate field source: 2026 House election roster ↗