Democratic
Christina Bohannan
Major-party general-election nominee.
VotePredictor forecast
Mariannette Miller-Meeks favored
Toss-up · predicted margin R+2.3
63%
chance to win
2024 presidential lean
R+6.82026 national environment
D+6.3Model uncertainty
±6.9 pointsFundamentals model using district presidential lean, incumbency and the national environment. It is not a poll average.
Republican
Mariannette Miller-Meeks
Incumbent representative for IA-1. Voting record, ideology and biography →
Other listed candidates
- Michael Bridgford · Independent
Polls
The polls behind it
1 poll · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMargin
The Bullfinch Group2026-07-16D+5.0
Shown for context. The forecast above is fundamentals-only and does not use these polls: tested against 2016–2024, a poll-driven rule beat fundamentals only because of a single wave cycle and reversed without it. See methodology.
Other forecasts
We have not yet ingested a district rating from these independent forecasters for IA-1; links go to their current national House ratings. Missing is shown as missing—not converted into a probability.
Past results
Every election in Iowa's 1st district we hold a result for. District numbers are reused across redistricting, so older rows may cover different ground than the seat does today.
YearWinnerMargin
Candidate news
7 House Republicans vote with Democrats on Iran war powers resolution - Fox News
7 House Republicans vote with Democrats on Iran war powers resolutionFox News Trump sees three new GOP defections in House vote to end Iran warCNN Vulnerable GOP Iowa Incumbents Break With Trump on Iran WarWSJ Iowa reps Zach Nunn, Mariannette Miller-Meeks bac…
Slashdot.org · September 16, 2026
House votes to limit Trump's power to strike Iran for 3rd time
Washington — For the third time, the House voted Tuesday to block President Trump from taking further military action against Iran, with seven Republicans breaking with the president. The vote ended in a 220 to 204 tally, marking a symbolic rebuke of the pres…
Freerepublic.com · September 16, 2026
Vulnerable GOP Iowa Incumbents Break with Trump
“In the latest sign of the political weight of the war in Iran, two Iowa Republicans facing competitive House elections crossed the aisle to support a Democratic resolution to end the fighting, swelling the number of GOP defections,” the Wall Street Journal r…
Politicalwire.com · September 16, 2026
House Votes for Third Time to End Iran War Thanks to 7 Republicans
For the third time, the House of Representatives said “no” to President Donald Trump’s war with Iran. Seven Republicans voted with Democrats to end the conflict. The Tuesday night vote, which will probably be the last anti-war resolution before the midterm el…
The New Republic · September 16, 2026
Candidate field source: 2026 House election roster ↗