Iowa District 4 election, 2026

David Dawson vs. Chris McGowan.

VotePredictor forecast

Chris McGowan favored

Safe R · predicted margin R+25.5

100%

chance to win

2024 presidential lean

R+29.8

2026 national environment

D+6.3

Model uncertainty

±6.9 points

Fundamentals model using district presidential lean, incumbency and the national environment. It is not a poll average.

Democratic

David Dawson

Major-party general-election nominee.

Republican

Chris McGowan

Major-party general-election nominee.

Polls

No district-level 2026 general-election poll is currently in VotePredictor's verified polling feed for IA-4. The forecast above uses fundamentals only.

Other forecasts

We have not yet ingested a district rating from these independent forecasters for IA-4; links go to their current national House ratings. Missing is shown as missing—not converted into a probability.

Cook Political Report

View House ratings ↗

Inside Elections

View House ratings ↗

Sabato's Crystal Ball

View House analysis ↗

Past results

Every election in Iowa's 4th district we hold a result for. District numbers are reused across redistricting, so older rows may cover different ground than the seat does today.

YearWinnerMargin

2024Randy Feenstra(R)R+34.3

2020Randy Feenstra(R)R+24.2

2018Steve King(R)R+3.3

2014Steve King(R)R+23.3

2012Steve King(R)R+8.1

2008Tom Latham(R)R+21.1

2006Tom Latham(R)R+14.4

2002Tom Latham(R)R+11.7

Candidate news

No recent verified candidate stories are available in the site's news feed for this race yet.

Candidate field source: 2026 House election roster ↗

Nearby in the directory: IA-3 · ID-1