VotePredictor
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Iowa District 4 election, 2026

David Dawson vs. Chris McGowan. Today's article: every forecast for this race →

VotePredictor forecast
Chris McGowan favored
Safe R · predicted margin R+23.6
99%
chance to win
2024 presidential margin
R+31.0
2026 national environment
D+8.0
District polls
none
Forecast spread
±6.6 points

Margin from the district's presidential lean on its 2026 lines, one fitted intercept and the national environment as a uniform swing; the win probability adds a decaying incumbency premium (open seat: none). No district poll is blended in.

Democratic

David Dawson

Major-party general-election nominee.

Republican

Chris McGowan

Major-party general-election nominee.

Polls

No district-level 2026 general-election poll is currently in VotePredictor's verified polling feed for IA-4. The forecast above is the model alone: lean, incumbency and the national environment.

Campaign money

FEC reports through October 14, 2026
Chris McGowanREP$863k raised
Spent $419kCash on hand $444kDebts $1401% from donors under $200
Top contributors, industries and states

Contributors

  1. HEISS, KEVIN$14k
  2. ROACH, LOUISE$14k
  3. SKINNER, DOUGLAS E.$14k
  4. BOMGAARS, JANE$13k
  5. ANDERSEN, LAURIE L.$12k

Industries

  1. Retired$135k
  2. Self-Employed & Freelance$62k
  3. Homemaker$33k
  4. Finance, Insurance & Real Estate$10k
  5. Retail, Food & Consumer Goods$8k

States

  1. IA$312k
  2. SD$194k
  3. FL$26k
  4. CA$16k
  5. CO$16k
Every contribution on GovMoneyGraph ↗
David DawsonDEM$259k raised
Spent $217kCash on hand $42k31% from donors under $200
Top contributors, industries and states

Contributors

  1. WHIPPLE, KEITH$7k
  2. MCCORD, CARLTON D$6k
  3. AMERICAN FEDERATION OF STATE COUNTY AND MUNICIPAL EMPLOYEES P E O P L E$5k
  4. MACHINIST'S NON-PARTISAN POLITICAL LEAGUE MULTI CANDIDATE COMMITTEE$5k
  5. UNITED AUTO WORKERS$5k

Industries

  1. Retired$42k
  2. Unemployed$37k
  3. Self-Employed & Freelance$19k
  4. Nonprofit, Labor & Civil Society$17k
  5. Not Reported$3k

States

  1. IA$133k
  2. NV$4k
  3. CA$2k
  4. SD$2k
  5. DC$750
Every contribution on GovMoneyGraph ↗

What each candidate's own campaign committees reported for the 2025–26 cycle; outside spending by PACs and parties is not included. Industries are classified from donors' reported employers. The House forecast's win probability reads the two nominees' shares of individual contributions shown here, a small term that never moves the predicted margin. Data: GovMoneyGraph, based on FEC records.

Other forecasts

We have not yet ingested a district rating from these independent forecasters for IA-4; links go to their current national House ratings. Missing is shown as missing—not converted into a probability.

Cook Political Report
View House ratings ↗
Inside Elections
View House ratings ↗
Sabato's Crystal Ball
View House analysis ↗

Past results

Every election in Iowa's 4th district we hold a result for. District numbers are reused across redistricting, so older rows may cover different ground than the seat does today.

YearWinnerMargin
2024Randy Feenstra(R)R+34.3
2020Randy Feenstra(R)R+24.2
2018Steve King(R)R+3.3
2014Steve King(R)R+23.3
2012Steve King(R)R+8.1
2008Tom Latham(R)R+21.1
2006Tom Latham(R)R+14.4
2002Tom Latham(R)R+11.7

Candidate news

No recent verified candidate stories are available in the site's news feed for this race yet.

Candidate field source: 2026 House election roster ↗

Nearby in the directory: IA-3 · ID-1