VotePredictor
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Kansas District 3 election, 2026

Sharice Davids vs. Eric Jenkins.

VotePredictor forecast
Sharice Davids favored
Likely D · predicted margin D+9.8
94%
chance to win
2024 presidential lean
D+4.0
2026 national environment
D+6.5
District polls
none
Forecast spread
±7.8 points

Margin from the district's presidential lean on its 2026 lines, one fitted intercept and the national environment as a uniform swing; the win probability adds a decaying incumbency premium (Democratic incumbent running). No district poll is blended in.

Republican

Eric Jenkins

Major-party general-election nominee.

Other listed candidates

  • Steven Hohe · Libertarian

Polls

No district-level 2026 general-election poll is currently in VotePredictor's verified polling feed for KS-3. The forecast above is the model alone: lean, incumbency and the national environment.

Other forecasts

We have not yet ingested a district rating from these independent forecasters for KS-3; links go to their current national House ratings. Missing is shown as missing—not converted into a probability.

Past results

Every election in Kansas's 3rd district we hold a result for. District numbers are reused across redistricting, so older rows may cover different ground than the seat does today.

Candidate news

Candidate field source: 2026 House election roster ↗

Nearby in the directory: KS-2 · KS-4