Democratic
Sharice Davids
Incumbent representative for KS-3. Voting record, ideology and biography →
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Kansas District 3 election, 2026
Sharice Davids vs. Eric Jenkins. Today's article: every forecast for this race →
VotePredictor forecast
Sharice Davids favored
Safe D · predicted margin D+16.7
99%
chance to win
2024 presidential margin
D+4.02026 national environment
D+8.0District polls
noneForecast spread
±7.2 pointsMargin from the district's presidential lean on its 2026 lines, one fitted intercept and the national environment as a uniform swing; the win probability adds a decaying incumbency premium (Democratic incumbent running). No district poll is blended in.
Republican
Eric Jenkins
Major-party general-election nominee.
Other listed candidates
- Steven Hohe · Libertarian
Polls
No district-level 2026 general-election poll is currently in VotePredictor's verified polling feed for KS-3. The forecast above is the model alone: lean, incumbency and the national environment.
Campaign money
FEC reports through October 14, 2026Sharice DavidsDEM · incumbent$4.7M raised
Spent $3.2MCash on hand $1.9M28% from donors under $200
Top contributors, industries and states
Contributors
Industries
- Unemployed$1.1M
- Self-Employed & Freelance$179k
- Finance, Insurance & Real Estate$55k
- Legal & Professional Services$51k
- Nonprofit, Labor & Civil Society$47k
States
- KS$1.2M
- CA$142k
- MO$97k
- DC$83k
- NY$67k
Eric JenkinsREP$52k raised
Spent $33kCash on hand $19kDebts $2k13% from donors under $200Self-funded $2k
Top contributors, industries and states
Contributors
Industries
- Retired$15k
- Self-Employed & Freelance$2k
- Legal & Professional Services$2k
- Healthcare & Pharmaceuticals$260
States
- KS$29k
- TX$3k
- MO$1k
- PA$260
What each candidate's own campaign committees reported for the 2025–26 cycle; outside spending by PACs and parties is not included. Industries are classified from donors' reported employers. The House forecast's win probability reads the two nominees' shares of individual contributions shown here, a small term that never moves the predicted margin. Data: GovMoneyGraph, based on FEC records.
Other forecasts
We have not yet ingested a district rating from these independent forecasters for KS-3; links go to their current national House ratings. Missing is shown as missing—not converted into a probability.
Past results
Every election in Kansas's 3rd district we hold a result for. District numbers are reused across redistricting, so older rows may cover different ground than the seat does today.
YearWinnerMargin
Candidate news
Sharice Davids wins reelection in Kansas, preserving historic LGBTQ+ representation in Congress
Democratic U.S. Rep. Sharice Davids has won reelection in Kansas’ 3rd Congressional District, securing a fifth term in Congress and preserving the historic representation she helped establish as one of the first two Native American women elected to the U.S. H…
Advocate.com · November 4, 2026
Republican refuses to force Epstein vote — then admits he'd 'probably vote for it'
TOPEKA — Kansas congressional candidate Don Coover expressed frustration with U.S. Rep. Derek Schmidt’s refusal to help trigger a House vote on a bill pressuring the administration of President Donald Trump to release more documents in the Jeffrey Epstein cas…
Raw Story · September 21, 2026
Social Security Update: Hundreds of Thousands to Benefit Under New Proposal
A new bipartisan proposal in Congress is looking to modernize how families apply for Social Security survivor benefits. Representatives Sharice Davids, a Kansas Democrat, and Gabe Evans, a Colorado Republican, introduced the Survivor Benefits Application Mode…
Biztoc.com · September 16, 2026
Big Ugly Bill Leaves 10,000 Kansas Kids Hungry
TOPEKA — A Kansas advocacy organization sounded an alarm about a report indicating 10,300 children in low-income families across the state stopped receiving food aid since President Donald Trump signed sweeping federal legislation nearly one year ago. Kansas …
Crooksandliars.com · May 30, 2026
Candidate field source: 2026 House election roster ↗