Actual result
D+12.2
Final polls said
D+14.0
1 late poll · ✓
Model predicted
D+13.5
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor | D+13.5 | 1.3 | ✓ |
| 2 | The New York Times/Siena College | D+14.0 | 1.8 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor | Dem 94% | 0.003 | ✓ |
| 2 | Race to the WH | Dem 94% | 0.004 | ✓ |
| 3 | The Economist | Dem 87% | 0.017 | ✓ |
| 4 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 87% | 0.018 | ✓ |
| 5 | JHK Forecasts | Dem 86% | 0.020 | ✓ |
| 6 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 84% | 0.026 | ✓ |
| 7 | Cook Political | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 8 | Elections Daily | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 9 | Fox News | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 10 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 11 | Split Ticket | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 12 | CNalysis | Dem 60% | 0.160 | ✓ |
| 13 | Inside Elections | Dem 60% | 0.160 | ✓ |
| 14 | RealClearPolitics | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
Polls (1)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| The New York Times/Siena College | 2022-10-21 | 431 | D+14.0 | 2 |