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Toss-up · 2022 House
Kansas House
In the 2022 Kansas House race, Sharice Davids (D) won by about 12 points.
Actual result
D+12.2
Final polls said
D+14.0
1 late poll · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | The New York Times/Siena College | D+14.0 | 1.8 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor Elections | Dem 94% | 0.003 | ✓ |
| 2 | Race to the WH | Dem 94% | 0.004 | ✓ |
| 3 | The Economist | Dem 87% | 0.017 | ✓ |
| 4 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 87% | 0.018 | ✓ |
| 5 | JHK Forecasts | Dem 86% | 0.020 | ✓ |
| 6 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 84% | 0.026 | ✓ |
| 7 | Cook Political | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 8 | Elections Daily | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 9 | Fox News | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 10 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 11 | Split Ticket | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 12 | CNalysis | Dem 60% | 0.160 | ✓ |
| 13 | Inside Elections | Dem 60% | 0.160 | ✓ |
| 14 | RealClearPolitics | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
The polls behind it
1 poll · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
The New York Times/Siena College2022-10-212
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2022 Kansas House race?
Sharice Davids (D) won, by about 12.2 points (D+12.2).
When was the 2022 Kansas House election held?
It was held in November 2022.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.