Democratic
Katy Tyndell
Major-party general-election nominee.
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Kansas District 4 election, 2026
Katy Tyndell vs. Ron Estes. Today's article: every forecast for this race →
VotePredictor forecast
Ron Estes favored
Safe R · predicted margin R+16.7
99%
chance to win
2024 presidential margin
R+23.02026 national environment
D+8.0District polls
noneForecast spread
±6.6 pointsMargin from the district's presidential lean on its 2026 lines, one fitted intercept and the national environment as a uniform swing; the win probability adds a decaying incumbency premium (Republican incumbent running). No district poll is blended in.
Republican
Ron Estes
Incumbent representative for KS-4. Voting record, ideology and biography →
Other listed candidates
- Drew Cranmer · Libertarian
Polls
No district-level 2026 general-election poll is currently in VotePredictor's verified polling feed for KS-4. The forecast above is the model alone: lean, incumbency and the national environment.
Campaign money
FEC reports through October 14, 2026Ron EstesREP · incumbent$2.2M raised
Spent $2.1MCash on hand $1.3M1% from donors under $200
Top contributors, industries and states
Contributors
Industries
- Retired$49k
- Legal & Professional Services$36k
- Finance, Insurance & Real Estate$26k
- Not Reported$13k
- Self-Employed & Freelance$12k
States
- KS$198k
- DC$34k
- VA$31k
- NY$22k
- FL$15k
Katy TyndellDEM$633k raised
Spent $487kCash on hand $146k16% from donors under $200Self-funded $600
Top contributors, industries and states
Contributors
Industries
- Unemployed$226k
- Self-Employed & Freelance$63k
- Nonprofit, Labor & Civil Society$13k
- Not Reported$11k
- Technology & Communications$11k
States
- KS$387k
- CA$37k
- VA$18k
- OR$16k
- TX$11k
What each candidate's own campaign committees reported for the 2025–26 cycle; outside spending by PACs and parties is not included. Industries are classified from donors' reported employers. The House forecast's win probability reads the two nominees' shares of individual contributions shown here, a small term that never moves the predicted margin. Data: GovMoneyGraph, based on FEC records.
Other forecasts
We have not yet ingested a district rating from these independent forecasters for KS-4; links go to their current national House ratings. Missing is shown as missing—not converted into a probability.
Past results
Every election in Kansas's 4th district we hold a result for. District numbers are reused across redistricting, so older rows may cover different ground than the seat does today.
YearWinnerMargin
Candidate news
Big Ugly Bill Leaves 10,000 Kansas Kids Hungry
TOPEKA — A Kansas advocacy organization sounded an alarm about a report indicating 10,300 children in low-income families across the state stopped receiving food aid since President Donald Trump signed sweeping federal legislation nearly one year ago. Kansas …
Crooksandliars.com · May 30, 2026
'Amateur hour': Trump's stunts put deep red House seat at risk for first time in 30 years
TOPEKA — Retired Air Force Col. Chris Carmichael believes he can defeat Republican U.S. Rep. Ron Estes in the 4th District congressional race, even though the incumbent won the seat by a 30-point margin two years ago.A Democrat hasn’t represented the Wichita-…
Raw Story · May 18, 2026
These red-state Republicans must break their silence — our lives depend on it
It’s not every day you wake up and send the following email to the five Republican men representing Kansas in Washington, D.C.:“Good morning! I was wondering if the congressman had any comment on the president’s words yesterday threatening the eradication of …
Raw Story · April 9, 2026
State's entire congressional delegation voluntarily halts their paychecks amid shutdown
Entire Kansas congressional delegation voluntarily halts their paychecks amid shutdownby Tim Carpenter, Kansas Reflector October 27, 2025TOPEKA — All six members of the Kansas congressional delegation voluntarily put a halt to payment of their federal salarie…
Raw Story · October 28, 2025
Candidate field source: 2026 House election roster ↗