Democratic
Katy Tyndell
Major-party general-election nominee.
VotePredictor forecast
Ron Estes favored
Safe R · predicted margin R+15.6
99%
chance to win
2024 presidential lean
R+22.82026 national environment
D+5.5Model uncertainty
±6.9 pointsFundamentals model using district presidential lean, incumbency and the national environment. It is not a poll average.
Republican
Ron Estes
Incumbent representative for KS-4. Voting record, ideology and biography →
Polls
No district-level 2026 general-election poll is currently in VotePredictor's verified polling feed for KS-4. The forecast above therefore uses fundamentals only. A poll table will appear here when matched polls are available.
Other forecasts
We have not yet ingested a district rating from these independent forecasters for KS-4; links go to their current national House ratings. Missing is shown as missing—not converted into a probability.
Candidate news
Big Ugly Bill Leaves 10,000 Kansas Kids Hungry
TOPEKA — A Kansas advocacy organization sounded an alarm about a report indicating 10,300 children in low-income families across the state stopped receiving food aid since President Donald Trump signed sweeping federal legislation nearly one year ago. Kansas …
Crooksandliars.com · May 30, 2026
'Amateur hour': Trump's stunts put deep red House seat at risk for first time in 30 years
TOPEKA — Retired Air Force Col. Chris Carmichael believes he can defeat Republican U.S. Rep. Ron Estes in the 4th District congressional race, even though the incumbent won the seat by a 30-point margin two years ago.A Democrat hasn’t represented the Wichita-…
Raw Story · May 18, 2026
These red-state Republicans must break their silence — our lives depend on it
It’s not every day you wake up and send the following email to the five Republican men representing Kansas in Washington, D.C.:“Good morning! I was wondering if the congressman had any comment on the president’s words yesterday threatening the eradication of …
Raw Story · April 9, 2026
State's entire congressional delegation voluntarily halts their paychecks amid shutdown
Entire Kansas congressional delegation voluntarily halts their paychecks amid shutdownby Tim Carpenter, Kansas Reflector October 27, 2025TOPEKA — All six members of the Kansas congressional delegation voluntarily put a halt to payment of their federal salarie…
Raw Story · October 28, 2025
Candidate field source: 2026 House election roster ↗