VotePredictor
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Kansas District 2 election, 2026

Don Coover vs. Derek Schmidt. Today's article: every forecast for this race →

VotePredictor forecast
Derek Schmidt favored
Safe R · predicted margin R+10.2
95%
chance to win
2024 presidential margin
R+20.0
2026 national environment
D+8.0
District polls
1, averaging R+3.0
Forecast spread
±6.1 points

Margin from the district's presidential lean on its 2026 lines, one fitted intercept and the national environment as a uniform swing; the win probability adds a decaying incumbency premium (Republican incumbent running). The 1 district poll are blended in by inverse variance, about 39% of the weight: the model alone said R+14.9.

Democratic

Don Coover

Major-party general-election nominee.

Other listed candidates

  • John Hauer · Libertarian

Polls

The polls behind it

1 poll · newest first

Each pollster name links to the poll's source; the grade under it is its VotePredictor grade from past elections. Margin is the poll as published. The ± under the sample size is the 95% margin of error on each candidate's share, from the sample size (the gap between them is about twice as uncertain).

PollsterDateMargin
DCCC (via Wikipedia)10-20R+3.0

These polls move the forecast: their average is blended into the model's own margin by inverse variance, with about 39% of the weight on the polls (a single poll gets about half; more polls, more weight). The rule was preregistered and validated on 321 polled districts from 2018–2024. See methodology.

Campaign money

FEC reports through October 14, 2026
Derek SchmidtREP · incumbent$1.8M raised
Spent $1.4MCash on hand $458kDebts $2k4% from donors under $200
Top contributors, industries and states

Contributors

  1. DEREK SCHMIDT VICTORY FUND$52k
  2. ANTHONY, JEFF$18k
  3. CROSSLAND, IVAN$14k
  4. FOOTE, GREGORY E.$14k
  5. MURFIN, DAVID$14k

Industries

  1. Retired$176k
  2. Self-Employed & Freelance$147k
  3. Transportation & Logistics$31k
  4. Retail, Food & Consumer Goods$30k
  5. Energy, Utilities & Mining$28k

States

  1. KS$811k
  2. VA$20k
  3. MO$20k
  4. TX$17k
  5. FL$10k
Every contribution on GovMoneyGraph ↗
Don CooverDEM$1.4M raised
Spent $1.1MCash on hand $232kDebts $27k33% from donors under $200Self-funded $7k
Top contributors, industries and states

Contributors

  1. METCALF, JORDAN$14k
  2. HOAGLAND, JOSEPH$10k
  3. OLIVERIUS, MAYNARD$7k
  4. BONNER, GARLAND$7k
  5. COOVER, DONALD$7k

Industries

  1. Unemployed$501k
  2. Self-Employed & Freelance$135k
  3. Nonprofit, Labor & Civil Society$26k
  4. Legal & Professional Services$11k
  5. Finance, Insurance & Real Estate$9k

States

  1. KS$709k
  2. CA$29k
  3. MO$16k
  4. FL$14k
  5. NE$12k
Every contribution on GovMoneyGraph ↗

What each candidate's own campaign committees reported for the 2025–26 cycle; outside spending by PACs and parties is not included. Industries are classified from donors' reported employers. The House forecast's win probability reads the two nominees' shares of individual contributions shown here, a small term that never moves the predicted margin. Data: GovMoneyGraph, based on FEC records.

Other forecasts

We have not yet ingested a district rating from these independent forecasters for KS-2; links go to their current national House ratings. Missing is shown as missing—not converted into a probability.

Cook Political Report
View House ratings ↗
Inside Elections
View House ratings ↗
Sabato's Crystal Ball
View House analysis ↗

Past results

Every election in Kansas's 2nd district we hold a result for. District numbers are reused across redistricting, so older rows may cover different ground than the seat does today.

YearWinnerMargin
2022Jake LaTurner(R)R+15.3
2020Jake LaTurner(R)R+14.5
2018Steve Watkins(R)R+0.8
2014Lynn Jenkins(R)R+18.4
2006Nancy E. Boyda(D)D+3.5

Candidate news

Dems make a Kansas play as GOP eyes a California seat

House Democrats are making a play for a red seat in Kansas, but Republicans are competitive in a California seat — and both are releasing polling to back it up. Democrat Don Coover is down by three points against incumbent Republican Rep. Derek Schmidt, withi…

Biztoc.com · October 23, 2026
The Return of the Farmer Politician

Many of the new Democratic candidates making a splash this cycle are the progressives who ran to the left of the party establishment in the primaries and defeated their more centrist counterparts. But there’s another intriguing trend that’s been obscured in a…

The New Republic · September 22, 2026
Republican refuses to force Epstein vote — then admits he'd 'probably vote for it'

TOPEKA — Kansas congressional candidate Don Coover expressed frustration with U.S. Rep. Derek Schmidt’s refusal to help trigger a House vote on a bill pressuring the administration of President Donald Trump to release more documents in the Jeffrey Epstein cas…

Raw Story · September 21, 2026
Former red state governor drops out of 2026 race after Trump endorses rival

TOPEKA — Former Gov. Jeff Colyer ended a Republican campaign Monday for the party’s 2026 nomination for governor in wake of President Donald Trump’s endorsement of rival Senate President Ty Masterson.Colyer, who was sworn in as governor in 2018 after the resi…

Raw Story · June 2, 2026

Candidate field source: 2026 House election roster ↗

Nearby in the directory: KS-1 · KS-3