Democratic
Callie Barr
Major-party general-election nominee.
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Michigan District 1 election, 2026
Callie Barr vs. Jack Bergman. Today's article: every forecast for this race →
VotePredictor forecast
Jack Bergman favored
Safe R · predicted margin R+11.8
99%
chance to win
2024 presidential margin
R+21.02026 national environment
D+8.0District polls
noneForecast spread
±6.6 pointsMargin from the district's presidential lean on its 2026 lines, one fitted intercept and the national environment as a uniform swing; the win probability adds a decaying incumbency premium (Republican incumbent running). No district poll is blended in.
Republican
Jack Bergman
Incumbent representative for MI-1. Voting record, ideology and biography →
Other listed candidates
- Arnett Satterla · Libertarian
- Liz Hakola · Working Class
- Doc Kovaly · U.S. Taxpayers
- Zebulon Featherly · Independent
- LaVeta Davenport · Green
Polls
No district-level 2026 general-election poll is currently in VotePredictor's verified polling feed for MI-1. The forecast above is the model alone: lean, incumbency and the national environment.
Campaign money
FEC reports through October 14, 2026Jack BergmanREP · incumbent$2.4M raised
Spent $2.3MCash on hand $263k7% from donors under $200
Top contributors, industries and states
Contributors
Industries
- Not Reported$141k
- Legal & Professional Services$14k
- Finance, Insurance & Real Estate$12k
- Nonprofit, Labor & Civil Society$11k
- Technology & Communications$11k
States
- MI$217k
- VA$35k
- CA$24k
- FL$21k
- TX$19k
Callie BarrDEM$1.7M raised
Spent $1.3MCash on hand $384k12% from donors under $200
Top contributors, industries and states
Contributors
Industries
- Unemployed$534k
- Retired$119k
- Self-Employed & Freelance$73k
- Legal & Professional Services$58k
- Nonprofit, Labor & Civil Society$23k
States
- MI$912k
- CA$43k
- NY$36k
- FL$31k
- MD$19k
What each candidate's own campaign committees reported for the 2025–26 cycle; outside spending by PACs and parties is not included. Industries are classified from donors' reported employers. The House forecast's win probability reads the two nominees' shares of individual contributions shown here, a small term that never moves the predicted margin. Data: GovMoneyGraph, based on FEC records.
Other forecasts
We have not yet ingested a district rating from these independent forecasters for MI-1; links go to their current national House ratings. Missing is shown as missing—not converted into a probability.
Past results
Every election in Michigan's 1st district we hold a result for. District numbers are reused across redistricting, so older rows may cover different ground than the seat does today.
YearWinnerMargin
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Candidate field source: 2026 House election roster ↗