Democratic
Callie Barr
Major-party general-election nominee.
VotePredictor forecast
Jack Bergman favored
Safe R · predicted margin R+15.2
99%
chance to win
2024 presidential lean
R+21.02026 national environment
D+6.5District polls
noneForecast spread
±7.8 pointsMargin from the district's presidential lean on its 2026 lines, one fitted intercept and the national environment as a uniform swing; the win probability adds a decaying incumbency premium (Republican incumbent running). No district poll is blended in.
Republican
Jack Bergman
Incumbent representative for MI-1. Voting record, ideology and biography →
Other listed candidates
- LaVeta Davenport · Green
- Zebulon Featherly · Independent
- Liz Hakola · Working Class
- Doc Kovaly · U.S. Taxpayers
- Arnett Satterla · Libertarian
Polls
No district-level 2026 general-election poll is currently in VotePredictor's verified polling feed for MI-1. The forecast above is the model alone: lean, incumbency and the national environment.
Other forecasts
We have not yet ingested a district rating from these independent forecasters for MI-1; links go to their current national House ratings. Missing is shown as missing—not converted into a probability.
Past results
Every election in Michigan's 1st district we hold a result for. District numbers are reused across redistricting, so older rows may cover different ground than the seat does today.
YearWinnerMargin
Candidate news
Michigan GOPers Put Canada on Blast Over Wildfire Smoke
Four House Republicans from Michigan say their neighbors to the north aren't doing enough to keep their fires—and their smoke—at home. In a sharply worded letter to Canada's prime minister, the BBC reports that John James, John Moolenaar, Jack Bergman, and Li…
Newser · July 17, 2026
Lawmakers Will Wash Vietnam Memorial To Honor 'Those Who Gave Everything': Vietnam Vet Jack Bergman
On Thursday, members of the For Country Caucus, a bipartisan group of veterans serving in Congress, will hand wash the Vietnam Veterans Memorial ahead of Memorial Day.
Forbes · May 20, 2026
Psychedelics Are A 'Magic Cure' For Mental Health Conditions, Congressman Says - Marijuana Moment
A bipartisan pair of members of Congress are continuing their push to expedite the availability of psychedelic therapies that they believe can aid military veterans and other people who are struggling with mental health conditions. Reps. Jack Bergman (R-MI) a…
Marijuana Moment · May 13, 2026
Why Governments Prefer Cigarette Revenue over Safer Alternatives
In December 2024, Congress did something unusual: it introduced a bill that openly acknowledges tobacco harm reduction. The POUCH Act of 2024, sponsored by Rep. Jack Bergman (R-MI) and co-sponsored by Rep. Don Davis (D-NC), aims to prevent states and cities f…
Activistpost.com · December 22, 2025
Candidate field source: 2026 House election roster ↗