← all past elections
Toss-up · 2018 House
Michigan House
In the 2018 Michigan House race, Jack Bergman (R) won by about 13 points.
Actual result
R+12.6
Final polls said
R+12.0
1 late poll · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Rep
"Final polls" = the last ~3 weeks; the prediction is walk-forward. How this is scored →
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Change Research | R+12.0 | 0.6 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | The Economist | Rep 97% | 0.001 | ✓ |
| 2 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 96% | 0.002 | ✓ |
| 3 | VotePredictor Elections | Rep 95% | 0.003 | ✓ |
| 4 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Rep 93% | 0.005 | ✓ |
| 5 | Cook Political | Rep 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 6 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
The polls behind it
1 poll · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Change Research2018-10-281
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2018 Michigan House race?
Jack Bergman (R) won, by about 12.6 points (R+12.6).
When was the 2018 Michigan House election held?
It was held in November 2018.