Maine District 2 election, 2026

Matthew Dunlap vs. Paul LePage. Today's article: every forecast for this race →

VotePredictor forecast

Matthew Dunlap favored

Toss-up · predicted margin D+0.2

52%

chance to win

2024 presidential margin

R+9.0

2026 national environment

D+8.0

District polls

5, averaging D+1.4

Forecast spread

±5.1 points

Margin from the district's presidential lean on its 2026 lines, one fitted intercept and the national environment as a uniform swing; the win probability adds a decaying incumbency premium (open seat: none). The 5 district polls are blended in by inverse variance, about 58% of the weight: the model alone said R+1.5.

Democratic

Matthew Dunlap

Major-party general-election nominee.

Republican

Paul LePage

Major-party general-election nominee.

Polls

The polls behind it

9 polls · newest first

Each pollster name links to the poll's source; the grade under it is its VotePredictor grade from past elections. Margin is the poll as published. The ± under the sample size is the 95% margin of error on each candidate's share, from the sample size (the gap between them is about twice as uncertain).

PollsterDateMargin

University of New HampshireGrade B10-31R+5.0

Tulchin Research (via Wikipedia)10-14D+4.0

Tulchin Research (via Wikipedia)09-30D+2.0

University of New Hampshire (via Wikipedia)Grade B09-21D+6.0

Impact Research (via Wikipedia)Grade B-09-12EVEN

DCCC Targeting Team (via Wikipedia)08-13R+1.0

Tulchin Research (via Wikipedia)07-16D+1.0

co/efficient04-29R+10.0

University of New HampshireGrade B02-16R+1.0

These polls move the forecast: their average is blended into the model's own margin by inverse variance, with about 58% of the weight on the polls (a single poll gets about half; more polls, more weight). The rule was preregistered and validated on 321 polled districts from 2018–2024. See methodology.

Campaign money

FEC reports through October 14, 2026

Paul LePageREP$3.3M raised

Spent $2.5MCash on hand $848k6% from donors under $200

Top contributors, industries and states

Contributors

Industries

Retired$556k
Self-Employed & Freelance$136k
Homemaker$33k
Finance, Insurance & Real Estate$27k
Manufacturing & Industrial$18k

States

ME$1.1M
FL$144k
MA$35k
TX$30k
MO$28k

Every contribution on GovMoneyGraph ↗

Matthew DunlapDEM$3.0M raised

Spent $2.5MCash on hand $444k34% from donors under $200Self-funded $10k

Top contributors, industries and states

Contributors

Industries

Unemployed$780k
Self-Employed & Freelance$184k
Retired$172k
Nonprofit, Labor & Civil Society$64k
Legal & Professional Services$33k

States

ME$1.0M
CA$160k
NY$129k
MA$107k
DC$37k

Every contribution on GovMoneyGraph ↗

What each candidate's own campaign committees reported for the 2025–26 cycle; outside spending by PACs and parties is not included. Industries are classified from donors' reported employers. The House forecast's win probability reads the two nominees' shares of individual contributions shown here, a small term that never moves the predicted margin. Data: GovMoneyGraph, based on FEC records.

Other forecasts

We have not yet ingested a district rating from these independent forecasters for ME-2; links go to their current national House ratings. Missing is shown as missing—not converted into a probability.

Cook Political Report

View House ratings ↗

Inside Elections

View House ratings ↗

Sabato's Crystal Ball

View House analysis ↗

Past results

Every election in Maine's 2nd district we hold a result for. District numbers are reused across redistricting, so older rows may cover different ground than the seat does today.

YearWinnerMargin

2024Jared F. Golden(D)D+0.7

2022Jared Forrest Golden(D)D+6.1

2020Jared Forrest Golden(D)D+6.1

2018Jared Forrest Golden(D)D+1.3

2016Bruce Poliquin(R)R+9.6

2014Bruce Poliquin(R)R+5.2

2012Michael H. Michaud(D)D+16.4

2010Michael H. Michaud(D)D+10.3

2008Michael H. Michaud(D)D+34.9

2006Michael H. Michaud(D)D+41.0

2004Michael H. Michaud(D)D+18.6