Actual result
R+11.1
Final polls said
R+2.0
1 late poll · ✓
Model predicted
R+3.6
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hill Research Consultants | R+16.0 | 4.9 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | R+3.6 | 7.5 | ✓ |
| 3 | PSB Research | R+3.0 | 8.1 | ✓ |
| 4 | GQR | R+3.0 | 8.1 | ✓ |
| 5 | EPIC-MRA | R+2.0 | 9.1 | ✓ |
Polls (4)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EPIC-MRA | 2010-10-18 | 400 | R+2.0 | 9 |
| PSB Research | 2010-10-04 | 401 | R+3.0 | 8 |
| GQR | 2010-09-21 | 505 | R+3.0 | 8 |
| Hill Research Consultants | 2010-09-20 | 400 | R+16.0 | 5 |