Actual result
R+0.5
Final polls said
D+4.7
3 late polls · ✗
Model predicted
D+0.9
✗
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor | D+0.9 | 1.4 | ✗ |
| 2 | Public Policy Polling | D+2.0 | 2.5 | ✗ |
| 3 | Benenson Strategy Group | D+3.0 | 3.5 | ✗ |
| 4 | Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group | D+9.0 | 9.5 | ✗ |
Polls (3)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Benenson Strategy Group | 2012-09-30 | 400 | D+3.0 | 4 |
| Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group | 2012-09-19 | 402 | D+9.0 | 10 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2012-09-18 | 866 | D+2.0 | 3 |