Actual result
R+14.8
Final polls said
R+0.7
3 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+4.5
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Harper Polling | R+5.0 | 9.8 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | R+4.5 | 10.3 | ✓ |
| 3 | Impact Research | D+1.0 | 15.8 | ✗ |
Polls (3)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Impact Research | 2016-10-11 | 500 | D+1.0 | 16 |
| Harper Polling | 2016-10-08 | 400 | R+5.0 | 10 |
| Impact Research | 2016-09-12 | 500 | D+2.0 | 17 |