Actual result
R+16.9
Final polls said
R+18.0
1 late poll · ✓
Model predicted
R+17.2
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor | R+17.2 | 0.4 | ✓ |
| 2 | Public Opinion Strategies | R+18.0 | 1.1 | ✓ |
| 3 | DCCC Targeting and Analytics Department | R+6.0 | 10.9 | ✓ |
Polls (3)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Opinion Strategies | 2016-10-16 | 400 | R+18.0 | 1 |
| DCCC Targeting and Analytics Department | 2016-10-03 | 535 | R+6.0 | 11 |
| Public Opinion Strategies | 2016-09-11 | 400 | R+19.0 | 2 |