Actual result
R+7.6
Final polls said
R+3.0
2 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+1.0
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SurveyUSA | R+5.0 | 2.6 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | R+1.0 | 6.6 | ✓ |
| 3 | Normington, Petts & Associates | D+5.0 | 12.6 | ✗ |
Polls (4)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyUSA | 2008-10-29 | 647 | R+5.0 | 3 |
| SurveyUSA | 2008-10-26 | 643 | R+1.0 | 7 |
| SurveyUSA | 2008-10-06 | 634 | D+3.0 | 11 |
| Normington, Petts & Associates | 2008-09-29 | 400 | D+5.0 | 13 |