Actual result
R+13.7
Final polls said
R+4.0
3 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+8.3
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SurveyUSA | R+11.0 | 2.7 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | R+8.3 | 5.4 | ✓ |
| 3 | Clarity Campaign Labs | R+3.0 | 10.7 | ✓ |
| 4 | DCCC Targeting and Analytics Department | D+2.0 | 15.7 | ✗ |
Polls (3)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clarity Campaign Labs | 2016-10-12 | 500 | R+3.0 | 11 |
| SurveyUSA | 2016-10-12 | 579 | R+11.0 | 3 |
| DCCC Targeting and Analytics Department | 2016-09-12 | 353 | D+2.0 | 16 |