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Toss-up · 2016 House
Minnesota House
In the 2016 Minnesota House race, Erik Paulsen (R) won by about 14 points.
Actual result
R+13.7
Final polls said
R+4.0
3 late polls · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SurveyUSA | R+11.0 | 2.7 | ✓ |
| 2 | Clarity Campaign Labs | R+3.0 | 10.7 | ✓ |
| 3 | DCCC Targeting and Analytics Department | D+2.0 | 15.7 | ✗ |
The polls behind it
3 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Clarity Campaign Labs2016-10-1211
SurveyUSA2016-10-123
DCCC Targeting and Analytics Department2016-09-1216
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2016 Minnesota House race?
Erik Paulsen (R) won, by about 13.7 points (R+13.7).
When was the 2016 Minnesota House election held?
It was held in November 2016.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.