Democratic
Chris Backemeyer
Major-party general-election nominee.
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Nebraska District 1 election, 2026
Chris Backemeyer vs. Mike Flood. Today's article: every forecast for this race →
VotePredictor forecast
Mike Flood favored
Lean R · predicted margin R+3.5
75%
chance to win
2024 presidential margin
R+13.02026 national environment
D+8.0District polls
3, averaging D+0.3Forecast spread
±5.3 pointsMargin from the district's presidential lean on its 2026 lines, one fitted intercept and the national environment as a uniform swing; the win probability adds a decaying incumbency premium (Republican incumbent running). The 3 district polls are blended in by inverse variance, about 54% of the weight: the model alone said R+8.0.
Republican
Mike Flood
Incumbent representative for NE-1. Voting record, ideology and biography →
Other listed candidates
- Nik Sandman · Libertarian
- Daniel Hartong · America First
Polls
The polls behind it
4 polls · newest firstEach pollster name links to the poll's source; the grade under it is its VotePredictor grade from past elections. Margin is the poll as published. The ± under the sample size is the 95% margin of error on each candidate's share, from the sample size (the gap between them is about twice as uncertain).
PollsterDateSampleMargin
These polls move the forecast: their average is blended into the model's own margin by inverse variance, with about 54% of the weight on the polls (a single poll gets about half; more polls, more weight). The rule was preregistered and validated on 321 polled districts from 2018–2024. See methodology.
Campaign money
FEC reports through October 14, 2026Mike FloodREP · incumbent$2.8M raised
Spent $2.1MCash on hand $860kDebts $6k1% from donors under $200
Top contributors, industries and states
Contributors
Industries
- Retired$119k
- Finance, Insurance & Real Estate$86k
- Legal & Professional Services$56k
- Manufacturing & Industrial$36k
- Self-Employed & Freelance$33k
States
- NE$673k
- NY$47k
- DC$44k
- VA$41k
- CA$35k
Chris BackemeyerDEM$1.2M raised
Spent $799kCash on hand $355kDebts $100k17% from donors under $200Self-funded $105k
Top contributors, industries and states
Contributors
Industries
- Not Reported$349k
- Self-Employed & Freelance$99k
- Legal & Professional Services$38k
- Nonprofit, Labor & Civil Society$29k
- Finance, Insurance & Real Estate$19k
States
- NE$349k
- DC$79k
- VA$78k
- CA$63k
- NY$41k
What each candidate's own campaign committees reported for the 2025–26 cycle; outside spending by PACs and parties is not included. Industries are classified from donors' reported employers. The House forecast's win probability reads the two nominees' shares of individual contributions shown here, a small term that never moves the predicted margin. Data: GovMoneyGraph, based on FEC records.
Other forecasts
We have not yet ingested a district rating from these independent forecasters for NE-1; links go to their current national House ratings. Missing is shown as missing—not converted into a probability.
Past results
Every election in Nebraska's 1st district we hold a result for. District numbers are reused across redistricting, so older rows may cover different ground than the seat does today.
YearWinnerMargin
Candidate news
Nebraska Democrat looks to oust GOP congressman as Iran war crosses 6 months
Chris Backemeyer, the Democrat looking to unseat Rep. Mike Flood (R-Neb.), joins Meet the Press NOW to discuss the Iran war's impact on the U.S. economy and...
Yahoo Entertainment · August 28, 2026
Tommy Tuberville Brags He Talks to ChatGPT as Congress Ramps Up AI Use
Members of Congress are outsourcing their work to artificial intelligence without much, if any, oversight or limits. Staffers and legislators are using AI chatbots to write speeches and news releases, manage mail from constituents, draft questions for congres…
The New Republic · August 13, 2026
Angry crowd confronts Republican Rep. Mike Flood at Nebraska town hall
Yahoo Entertainment · July 8, 2026
GOP Rep Discovers His Constituents Can Read The Bill He Voted For
A Nebraska Republican ran into an angry crowd when he tried to gaslight his constituents on Trump's megabill. At a Tuesday town hall, Rep. Mike Flood got an earful of boos while attempting to defend the "One Big Beautiful Bill" — and stumbled badly when a con…
Crooksandliars.com · July 8, 2026
Candidate field source: 2026 House election roster ↗