Nebraska District 2 election, 2026

Denise Powell vs. Brinker Harding.

VotePredictor forecast

Denise Powell favored

Likely D · predicted margin D+8.2

88%

chance to win

2024 presidential lean

D+5.2

2026 national environment

D+6.3

Model uncertainty

±6.9 points

Fundamentals model using district presidential lean, incumbency and the national environment. It is not a poll average.

Democratic

Denise Powell

Major-party general-election nominee.

Republican

Brinker Harding

Major-party general-election nominee.

Other listed candidates

Eric Foreman · Libertarian

Polls

The polls behind it

1 poll · newest first

PollsterDateMargin

SurveyUSA2026-09-13D+4.0

Shown for context. The forecast above is fundamentals-only and does not use these polls: tested against 2016–2024, a poll-driven rule beat fundamentals only because of a single wave cycle and reversed without it. See methodology.

Other forecasts

We have not yet ingested a district rating from these independent forecasters for NE-2; links go to their current national House ratings. Missing is shown as missing—not converted into a probability.

Cook Political Report

View House ratings ↗

Inside Elections

View House ratings ↗

Sabato's Crystal Ball

View House analysis ↗

Past results

Every election in Nebraska's 2nd district we hold a result for. District numbers are reused across redistricting, so older rows may cover different ground than the seat does today.

YearWinnerMargin

2024Don Bacon(R)R+1.8

2020Don Bacon(R)R+4.6

2018Don Bacon(R)R+2.0

2016Don Bacon(R)R+1.2

2014Brad Ashford(D)D+3.3

2012Lee Terry(R)R+1.6

2010Lee Terry(R)R+21.6

2008Lee Terry(R)R+3.9

2004Lee Terry(R)R+24.9

2002Lee Terry(R)R+30.3

Candidate news

No recent verified candidate stories are available in the site's news feed for this race yet.

Candidate field source: 2026 House election roster ↗

Nearby in the directory: NE-1 · NE-3