Democratic
Joseph Morelle
Incumbent representative for NY-25. Voting record, ideology and biography →
VotePredictor forecast
Joseph Morelle favored
Safe D · predicted margin D+26.6
100%
chance to win
2024 presidential lean
D+18.82026 national environment
D+5.5Model uncertainty
±6.9 pointsFundamentals model using district presidential lean, incumbency and the national environment. It is not a poll average.
Republican
Virginia McIntyre
Major-party general-election nominee.
Polls
No district-level 2026 general-election poll is currently in VotePredictor's verified polling feed for NY-25. The forecast above therefore uses fundamentals only. A poll table will appear here when matched polls are available.
Other forecasts
We have not yet ingested a district rating from these independent forecasters for NY-25; links go to their current national House ratings. Missing is shown as missing—not converted into a probability.
Candidate news
Hakeem Jeffries pushes New York to join redistricting battle
U.S. Rep. Joe Morelle met Tuesday with Gov. Kathy Hochul U.S. Rep. Joe Morelle visited Albany Tuesday to urge lawmakers to adopt a mid-decade redrawing of congressional maps. [ more › ]
Gothamist · May 5, 2026
Dems get stark warning of 'absolute catastrophe' scenario as gerrymander wars rage
Democrats are staring down a potential redistricting nightmare heading into the 2026 midterms, with Republicans playing aggressive offense on congressional maps while Democrats scramble to hold the line in court, Punchbowl News reported Monday.The most urgent…
Raw Story · May 4, 2026
JOINT STATEMENT FROM LEADER JEFFRIES, RANKING MEMBER MORELLE ON NEW YORK REDISTRICTING (Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries)
Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries: JOINT STATEMENT FROM LEADER JEFFRIES, RANKING MEMBER MORELLE ON NEW YORK REDISTRICTING — Today, House Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries and Committee on House Administration Ranking Member Joe Morelle released a statement …
Memeorandum.com · May 4, 2026
Hakeem Jeffries Puts New York Into Trump’s Gerrymandering Wars
House Minority Leader Hakeem Jefferies has tapped a top New York Democrat to lead redistricting efforts in the state after the Supreme Court handed the Republican Party a major advantage for the upcoming midterms. Jeffries directed Representative Joe Morelle,…
The New Republic · May 4, 2026
Candidate field source: 2026 House election roster ↗