Democratic
Joseph Morelle
Incumbent representative for NY-25. Voting record, ideology and biography →
VotePredictor forecast
Joseph Morelle favored
Safe D · predicted margin D+23.9
99%
chance to win
2024 presidential lean
D+18.02026 national environment
D+6.5District polls
noneForecast spread
±7.8 pointsMargin from the district's presidential lean on its 2026 lines, one fitted intercept and the national environment as a uniform swing; the win probability adds a decaying incumbency premium (Democratic incumbent running). No district poll is blended in.
Republican
Virginia McIntyre
Major-party general-election nominee.
Polls
No district-level 2026 general-election poll is currently in VotePredictor's verified polling feed for NY-25. The forecast above is the model alone: lean, incumbency and the national environment.
Other forecasts
We have not yet ingested a district rating from these independent forecasters for NY-25; links go to their current national House ratings. Missing is shown as missing—not converted into a probability.
Past results
Every election in New York's 25th district we hold a result for. District numbers are reused across redistricting, so older rows may cover different ground than the seat does today.
YearWinnerMargin
Candidate news
Intimidation Feared as Trump DOJ Boosts Its Own Election Monitors While Rejecting International Observers
International election observers who have monitored US federal elections since 2002, in line with the practices of the vast majority of countries across North America, Europe, and Asia, said Tuesday that President Donald Trump's refusal to invite the Organiza…
Common Dreams · October 6, 2026
Dems Want to Regulate AI. But Will AI Money Divide Them?
You’re reading The TNR Blue Book. Get daily scoops, strategy, and developments inside the liberal ideas factory delivered right to your inbox. Sign up for free.Inside WashingtonDems want to regulate AI. But will AI money divide them?Democrats are loudly deman…
The New Republic · September 11, 2026
250+ Current, Former Lawmakers Urge Supreme Court to Block Trump Attack on Mail Voting
With the midterm elections less than two months away, more than 250 current and former Members of Congress came together on Tuesday to pressure the US Supreme Court to block Republican President Donald Trump's March executive order on voting and its resulting…
Common Dreams · September 8, 2026
Hakeem Jeffries pushes New York to join redistricting battle
U.S. Rep. Joe Morelle met Tuesday with Gov. Kathy Hochul U.S. Rep. Joe Morelle visited Albany Tuesday to urge lawmakers to adopt a mid-decade redrawing of congressional maps. [ more › ]
Gothamist · May 5, 2026
Candidate field source: 2026 House election roster ↗