Democratic
Joseph Morelle
Incumbent representative for NY-25. Voting record, ideology and biography →
← all House races
New York District 25 election, 2026
Joseph Morelle vs. Virginia McIntyre. Today's article: every forecast for this race →
VotePredictor forecast
Joseph Morelle favored
Safe D · predicted margin D+28.1
99%
chance to win
2024 presidential margin
D+18.02026 national environment
D+8.0District polls
noneForecast spread
±7.2 pointsMargin from the district's presidential lean on its 2026 lines, one fitted intercept and the national environment as a uniform swing; the win probability adds a decaying incumbency premium (Democratic incumbent running). No district poll is blended in.
Republican
Virginia McIntyre
Major-party general-election nominee.
Polls
No district-level 2026 general-election poll is currently in VotePredictor's verified polling feed for NY-25. The forecast above is the model alone: lean, incumbency and the national environment.
Campaign money
FEC reports through October 14, 2026Joseph MorelleDEM · incumbent$2.2M raised
Spent $2.2MCash on hand $468k3% from donors under $200
Top contributors, industries and states
Contributors
Industries
- Unemployed$144k
- Nonprofit, Labor & Civil Society$76k
- Finance, Insurance & Real Estate$53k
- Government Relations and Lobbying Services$47k
- Education & Academia$44k
States
- NY$606k
- DC$72k
- VA$38k
- FL$24k
- MD$22k
Virginia McIntyreREP$55k raised
Spent $66kCash on hand −$11k25% from donors under $200Self-funded $2k
Top contributors, industries and states
Contributors
Industries
- Retired$8k
- Self-Employed & Freelance$7k
States
- NY$28k
What each candidate's own campaign committees reported for the 2025–26 cycle; outside spending by PACs and parties is not included. Industries are classified from donors' reported employers. The House forecast's win probability reads the two nominees' shares of individual contributions shown here, a small term that never moves the predicted margin. Data: GovMoneyGraph, based on FEC records.
Other forecasts
We have not yet ingested a district rating from these independent forecasters for NY-25; links go to their current national House ratings. Missing is shown as missing—not converted into a probability.
Past results
Every election in New York's 25th district we hold a result for. District numbers are reused across redistricting, so older rows may cover different ground than the seat does today.
YearWinnerMargin
Candidate news
'Sorry to interrupt': 'Belligerent' MS NOW host cuts off Dem for downplaying Trump threat
MS NOW host Jonathan Capehart wasn’t satisfied with a Democratic congressman’s assurances that President Donald Trump can’t steal the midterms. He cut him off on air to tell him so.Rep. Joe Morelle (D-N.Y.), the top Democrat on the House Administration Commit…
Raw Story · October 24, 2026
'Should be arrested': Capitol Hill demand targets Musk as misinformation floods midterms
WASHINGTON — With the midterm elections just around the corner, misinformation and disinformation are flying in key battleground states.While a lot of attention has gone to combating election interference efforts from President Donald Trump and his allies, no…
Raw Story · October 17, 2026
Intimidation Feared as Trump DOJ Boosts Its Own Election Monitors While Rejecting International Observers
International election observers who have monitored US federal elections since 2002, in line with the practices of the vast majority of countries across North America, Europe, and Asia, said Tuesday that President Donald Trump's refusal to invite the Organiza…
Common Dreams · October 6, 2026
Dems Want to Regulate AI. But Will AI Money Divide Them?
You’re reading The TNR Blue Book. Get daily scoops, strategy, and developments inside the liberal ideas factory delivered right to your inbox. Sign up for free.Inside WashingtonDems want to regulate AI. But will AI money divide them?Democrats are loudly deman…
The New Republic · September 11, 2026
Candidate field source: 2026 House election roster ↗