VotePredictor
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New York District 25 election, 2026

Joseph Morelle vs. Virginia McIntyre.

VotePredictor forecast
Joseph Morelle favored
Safe D · predicted margin D+24.4
100%
chance to win
2024 presidential lean
D+18.8
2026 national environment
D+6.3
Model uncertainty
±6.9 points

Fundamentals model using district presidential lean, incumbency and the national environment. It is not a poll average.

Republican

Virginia McIntyre

Major-party general-election nominee.

Polls

No district-level 2026 general-election poll is currently in VotePredictor's verified polling feed for NY-25. The forecast above uses fundamentals only.

Other forecasts

We have not yet ingested a district rating from these independent forecasters for NY-25; links go to their current national House ratings. Missing is shown as missing—not converted into a probability.

Cook Political Report
View House ratings ↗
Inside Elections
View House ratings ↗
Sabato's Crystal Ball
View House analysis ↗

Past results

Every election in New York's 25th district we hold a result for. District numbers are reused across redistricting, so older rows may cover different ground than the seat does today.

YearWinnerMargin
2022Joseph D. Morelle(D)D+11.3
2018Joseph D. Morelle(D)D+21.0
2012Louise McIntosh Slaughter(D)D+18.4
2010Daniel B. Maffei(D)D+10.5
2008Daniel B. Maffei(D)D+12.9
2006Daniel B. Maffei(D)D+4.1

Candidate news

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You’re reading The TNR Blue Book. Get daily scoops, strategy, and developments inside the liberal ideas factory delivered right to your inbox. Sign up for free.Inside WashingtonDems want to regulate AI. But will AI money divide them?Democrats are loudly deman…

The New Republic · September 11, 2026
250+ Current, Former Lawmakers Urge Supreme Court to Block Trump Attack on Mail Voting

With the midterm elections less than two months away, more than 250 current and former Members of Congress came together on Tuesday to pressure the US Supreme Court to block Republican President Donald Trump's March executive order on voting and its resulting…

Common Dreams · September 8, 2026
Hakeem Jeffries pushes New York to join redistricting battle

U.S. Rep. Joe Morelle met Tuesday with Gov. Kathy Hochul U.S. Rep. Joe Morelle visited Albany Tuesday to urge lawmakers to adopt a mid-decade redrawing of congressional maps. [ more › ]

Gothamist · May 5, 2026
Dems get stark warning of 'absolute catastrophe' scenario as gerrymander wars rage

Democrats are staring down a potential redistricting nightmare heading into the 2026 midterms, with Republicans playing aggressive offense on congressional maps while Democrats scramble to hold the line in court, Punchbowl News reported Monday.The most urgent…

Raw Story · May 4, 2026

Candidate field source: 2026 House election roster ↗

Nearby in the directory: NY-24 · NY-26