Actual result
R+4.7
Final polls said
R+14.0
1 late poll · ✓
Model predicted
R+8.7
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor | R+8.7 | 3.9 | ✓ |
| 2 | SurveyUSA | R+14.0 | 9.3 | ✓ |
| 3 | brilliant corners Research & Strategies | D+10.0 | 14.7 | ✗ |
Polls (3)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyUSA | 2008-10-28 | 587 | R+14.0 | 9 |
| SurveyUSA | 2008-09-24 | 609 | R+11.0 | 6 |
| brilliant corners Research & Strategies | 2008-09-16 | 400 | D+10.0 | 15 |