Actual result
D+10.6
Final polls said
D+4.7
3 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+2.0
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Public Policy Polling | D+6.0 | 4.6 | ✓ |
| 2 | Siena College | D+4.0 | 6.6 | ✓ |
| 3 | VotePredictor | D+2.0 | 8.6 | ✓ |
| 4 | Global Strategy Group | R+1.0 | 11.6 | ✗ |
Polls (5)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling | 2011-05-21 | 1106 | D+6.0 | 5 |
| Siena College | 2011-05-19 | 639 | D+4.0 | 7 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2011-05-07 | 1048 | D+4.0 | 7 |
| Global Strategy Group | 2011-05-03 | 400 | R+1.0 | 12 |
| Siena College | 2011-04-26 | 484 | R+5.0 | 16 |