Actual result
R+4.0
Final polls said
R+3.3
4 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+0.7
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SurveyUSA | R+4.0 | 0.0 | ✓ |
| 2 | Zogby Analytics | R+1.0 | 3.0 | ✓ |
| 3 | VotePredictor | R+0.7 | 3.3 | ✓ |
| 4 | GQR | D+8.0 | 12.0 | ✗ |
| 5 | RT Strategies | D+16.0 | 20.0 | ✗ |
Polls (9)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyUSA | 2006-11-02 | 470 | R+4.0 | 0 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2006-10-31 | 403 | R+1.0 | 3 |
| SurveyUSA | 2006-10-26 | 411 | R+5.0 | 1 |
| SurveyUSA | 2006-10-17 | 419 | R+3.0 | 1 |
| RT Strategies | 2006-10-09 | 1000 | D+16.0 | 20 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2006-10-04 | 402 | D+15.0 | 19 |
| SurveyUSA | 2006-10-03 | 482 | D+5.0 | 9 |
| GQR | 2006-10-03 | 522 | D+8.0 | 12 |
| SurveyUSA | 2006-09-26 | 491 | R+2.0 | 2 |