Democratic
Janelle Bynum
Incumbent representative for OR-5. Voting record, ideology and biography →
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Oregon District 5 election, 2026
Janelle Bynum vs. Patti Adair. Today's article: every forecast for this race →
VotePredictor forecast
Janelle Bynum favored
Safe D · predicted margin D+16.1
99%
chance to win
2024 presidential margin
D+9.02026 national environment
D+8.0District polls
noneForecast spread
±7.2 pointsMargin from the district's presidential lean on its 2026 lines, one fitted intercept and the national environment as a uniform swing; the win probability adds a decaying incumbency premium (Democratic incumbent running). No district poll is blended in.
Republican
Patti Adair
Major-party general-election nominee.
Other listed candidates
- Andrea Townsend · Pacific Green
Polls
No district-level 2026 general-election poll is currently in VotePredictor's verified polling feed for OR-5. The forecast above is the model alone: lean, incumbency and the national environment.
Campaign money
FEC reports through October 14, 2026Janelle BynumDEM · incumbent$4.7M raised
Spent $2.6MCash on hand $2.2M13% from donors under $200
Top contributors, industries and states
Contributors
Industries
- Unemployed$1.1M
- Self-Employed & Freelance$223k
- Finance, Insurance & Real Estate$162k
- Legal & Professional Services$70k
- Nonprofit, Labor & Civil Society$52k
States
- OR$789k
- CA$428k
- NY$162k
- MA$145k
- DC$103k
Patti AdairREP$682k raised
Spent $560kCash on hand $123k29% from donors under $200Self-funded $7k
Top contributors, industries and states
Contributors
- PEYTON, MIKE$13k
- CURTIS, AARON B$10k
- DEMERS, GREGORY MARTIN$10k
- KNIGHT, PHILIP$10k
- SAWYER, JAMIE$8k
Industries
- Retired$153k
- Not Reported$70k
- Self-Employed & Freelance$40k
- Unemployed$10k
- Manufacturing & Industrial$4k
States
- OR$385k
- CA$21k
- UT$14k
- KY$7k
- AZ$5k
What each candidate's own campaign committees reported for the 2025–26 cycle; outside spending by PACs and parties is not included. Industries are classified from donors' reported employers. The House forecast's win probability reads the two nominees' shares of individual contributions shown here, a small term that never moves the predicted margin. Data: GovMoneyGraph, based on FEC records.
Other forecasts
We have not yet ingested a district rating from these independent forecasters for OR-5; links go to their current national House ratings. Missing is shown as missing—not converted into a probability.
Past results
Every election in Oregon's 5th district we hold a result for. District numbers are reused across redistricting, so older rows may cover different ground than the seat does today.
Candidate news
MS NOW's Russert: Oregon Has 'One of the More' Strict Gun Laws in U.S.
On Thursday’s broadcast of MS NOW’s “The Weeknight,” co-host Luke Russert discussed the shooting in Oregon and said that Oregon has “one of the more stricter gun laws in the country.” While speaking with Rep. Janelle Bynum (D-OR), Russert said, The post MS NO…
Breitbart News · October 16, 2026
Fairshake Backs 32 House Candidates As Crypto Election Spending Ramps Up
TL;DR Fairshake has named 32 U.S. House candidates it plans to support ahead of the November midterms. Six races are receiving $1 million in outside spending each, for an initial disclosed commitment of $6 million. The slate is bipartisan, with 19 Republicans…
newsBTC · October 6, 2026
WH Council of Economic Advisers Chair Christopher Phelan, Presidential adviser Peter Navarro, FERC Chair Laura Swett, Sens. Rounds and Gallego, Southern Company CEO Chris Womack, Reps. Adrian Smith, Beth Van Duyne, April Delaney, Bill Foster, and Janelle Bynum, ExIm's John Jovanovic and more to headline American Growth Summit tomorrow, Tuesday, September 29 in Washington, D.C.
WASHINGTON, Sept. 28, 2026 /PRNewswire/ -- A powerhouse lineup of leaders from the administration, US Congress, and American business and civil society will speak at a day-long convening on the evolving topography of America's economic interests hosted by Wid…
PRNewswire · September 28, 2026
Judge bulldozes Markwayne Mullin as wildfire victims suffer amid Trump 'pronoun' rule
A federal judge ruled DHS Secretary Markwayne Mullin cannot withhold Oregon disaster relief over President Donald Trump's 'pronoun' mandates as wildfires burn across the state.In a blistering order on Thursday, U.S. District Judge Michael McShane explained wh…
Raw Story · August 21, 2026
Candidate field source: 2026 House election roster ↗