VotePredictor
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Oregon District 5 election, 2026

Janelle Bynum vs. Patti Adair.

VotePredictor forecast
Janelle Bynum favored
Safe D · predicted margin D+15.0
99%
chance to win
2024 presidential lean
D+9.0
2026 national environment
D+6.6
District polls
none
Forecast spread
±7.8 points

Margin from the district's presidential lean on its 2026 lines, one fitted intercept and the national environment as a uniform swing; the win probability adds a decaying incumbency premium (Democratic incumbent running). No district poll is blended in.

Republican

Patti Adair

Major-party general-election nominee.

Other listed candidates

  • Andrea Townsend · Pacific Green

Polls

No district-level 2026 general-election poll is currently in VotePredictor's verified polling feed for OR-5. The forecast above is the model alone: lean, incumbency and the national environment.

Other forecasts

We have not yet ingested a district rating from these independent forecasters for OR-5; links go to their current national House ratings. Missing is shown as missing—not converted into a probability.

Past results

Every election in Oregon's 5th district we hold a result for. District numbers are reused across redistricting, so older rows may cover different ground than the seat does today.

YearWinnerMargin

Candidate news

Fairshake Backs 32 House Candidates As Crypto Election Spending Ramps Up

TL;DR Fairshake has named 32 U.S. House candidates it plans to support ahead of the November midterms. Six races are receiving $1 million in outside spending each, for an initial disclosed commitment of $6 million. The slate is bipartisan, with 19 Republicans…

newsBTC · October 6, 2026
WH Council of Economic Advisers Chair Christopher Phelan, Presidential adviser Peter Navarro, FERC Chair Laura Swett, Sens. Rounds and Gallego, Southern Company CEO Chris Womack, Reps. Adrian Smith, Beth Van Duyne, April Delaney, Bill Foster, and Janelle Bynum, ExIm's John Jovanovic and more to headline American Growth Summit tomorrow, Tuesday, September 29 in Washington, D.C.

WASHINGTON, Sept. 28, 2026 /PRNewswire/ -- A powerhouse lineup of leaders from the administration, US Congress, and American business and civil society will speak at a day-long convening on the evolving topography of America's economic interests hosted by Wid…

PRNewswire · September 28, 2026
Judge bulldozes Markwayne Mullin as wildfire victims suffer amid Trump 'pronoun' rule

A federal judge ruled DHS Secretary Markwayne Mullin cannot withhold Oregon disaster relief over President Donald Trump's 'pronoun' mandates as wildfires burn across the state.In a blistering order on Thursday, U.S. District Judge Michael McShane explained wh…

Raw Story · August 21, 2026
And There's Always The Bezos Post

Okay I'm listening:Thirteen Democratic House members and candidates announced their support Thursday for a centrist initiative aimed at pushing back against the party’s tilt toward democratic socialism. And what is this initiative:Killin is one of the 13 who…

Eschatonblog.com · June 26, 2026

Candidate field source: 2026 House election roster ↗

Nearby in the directory: OR-4 · OR-6