Democratic
Nancy Mannion
Major-party general-election nominee.
VotePredictor forecast
Lloyd Smucker favored
Safe R · predicted margin R+12.3
96%
chance to win
2024 presidential lean
R+21.02026 national environment
D+5.5Model uncertainty
±6.9 pointsFundamentals model using district presidential lean, incumbency and the national environment. It is not a poll average.
Republican
Lloyd Smucker
Incumbent representative for PA-11. Voting record, ideology and biography →
Polls
No district-level 2026 general-election poll is currently in VotePredictor's verified polling feed for PA-11. The forecast above therefore uses fundamentals only. A poll table will appear here when matched polls are available.
Other forecasts
We have not yet ingested a district rating from these independent forecasters for PA-11; links go to their current national House ratings. Missing is shown as missing—not converted into a probability.
Candidate news
Canada’s Streaming Tax Is Angering US Lawmakers — and a Fight May Be Coming
A Pennsylvania congressman is continuing to push back against Ottawa’s streaming rules, calling them unfair to American companies. Republican Lloyd Smucker took to X on Monday to warn that a top Canadian regulator confirmed new rules under Canada’s Online Str…
iPhone in Canada · May 19, 2026
U.S. Rep. Smucker says Lancaster County should be bird flu vaccine trial site
As bird flu cases steadily rise in Pennsylvania, especially in Lancaster County, U.S. Rep. Lloyd Smucker says he wants the county to serve as a testing ground for a potential vaccine.
LancasterOnline · February 26, 2026
H-2C Visa Explained: Thousands of Visas to be Offered Under New Proposal
A new bill introduced in Congress aims to expand temporary work opportunities for foreign laborers in nonagricultural sectors, allowing employers to hire international workers when domestic labor is unavailable. Rep. Lloyd Smucker (R-PA-11) has introduced the…
Biztoc.com · September 25, 2025
The GOP’s Budget Hawks Will Bankrupt the Country
Five Republican members of Congress—Chip Roy of Texas, Ralph Norman of South Carolina, Josh Brecheen of Oklahoma, Andrew Clyde of Georgia, and Lloyd Smucker of Pennsylvania—voted in committee Friday against the Trump budget reconciliation package because it d…
The New Republic · May 20, 2025
Candidate field source: 2026 House election roster ↗