Democratic
Nancy Mannion
Major-party general-election nominee.
VotePredictor forecast
Lloyd Smucker favored
Safe R · predicted margin R+15.0
99%
chance to win
2024 presidential lean
R+21.02026 national environment
D+6.6District polls
noneForecast spread
±7.8 pointsMargin from the district's presidential lean on its 2026 lines, one fitted intercept and the national environment as a uniform swing; the win probability adds a decaying incumbency premium (Republican incumbent running). No district poll is blended in.
Republican
Lloyd Smucker
Incumbent representative for PA-11. Voting record, ideology and biography →
Polls
No district-level 2026 general-election poll is currently in VotePredictor's verified polling feed for PA-11. The forecast above is the model alone: lean, incumbency and the national environment.
Other forecasts
We have not yet ingested a district rating from these independent forecasters for PA-11; links go to their current national House ratings. Missing is shown as missing—not converted into a probability.
Past results
Every election in Pennsylvania's 11th district we hold a result for. District numbers are reused across redistricting, so older rows may cover different ground than the seat does today.
Candidate news
GOP chair dangles 'crowning achievement' for Trump that carries steep price for party
Some congressional Republicans think they've found the ultimate legacy project for President Donald Trump – fixing Social Security before it goes broke.The catch is that doing so may require the president to embrace a tax increase, something he has spent his …
Raw Story · September 8, 2026
Canada’s Streaming Tax Is Angering US Lawmakers — and a Fight May Be Coming
A Pennsylvania congressman is continuing to push back against Ottawa’s streaming rules, calling them unfair to American companies. Republican Lloyd Smucker took to X on Monday to warn that a top Canadian regulator confirmed new rules under Canada’s Online Str…
iPhone in Canada · May 19, 2026
U.S. Rep. Smucker says Lancaster County should be bird flu vaccine trial site
As bird flu cases steadily rise in Pennsylvania, especially in Lancaster County, U.S. Rep. Lloyd Smucker says he wants the county to serve as a testing ground for a potential vaccine.
LancasterOnline · February 26, 2026
H-2C Visa Explained: Thousands of Visas to be Offered Under New Proposal
A new bill introduced in Congress aims to expand temporary work opportunities for foreign laborers in nonagricultural sectors, allowing employers to hire international workers when domestic labor is unavailable. Rep. Lloyd Smucker (R-PA-11) has introduced the…
Biztoc.com · September 25, 2025
Candidate field source: 2026 House election roster ↗