Actual result
R+9.4
Final polls said
D+1.5
2 late polls · ✗
Model predicted
R+0.8
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ccAdvertising | R+11.8 | 2.4 | ✓ |
| 2 | Franklin & Marshall College Center for Opinion Research | R+7.0 | 2.4 | ✓ |
| 3 | PSB Research | R+5.0 | 4.4 | ✓ |
| 4 | VotePredictor | R+0.8 | 8.6 | ✓ |
| 5 | Digital Research | D+8.0 | 17.4 | ✗ |
Polls (6)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Digital Research | 2010-10-24 | 400 | D+8.0 | 17 |
| PSB Research | 2010-10-20 | 402 | R+5.0 | 4 |
| Digital Research | 2010-10-10 | 400 | R+2.0 | 7 |
| ccAdvertising | 2010-10-07 | 442 | R+11.8 | 2 |
| Franklin & Marshall College Center for Opinion Research | 2010-10-07 | 414 | R+7.0 | 2 |
| Digital Research | 2010-09-22 | 221 | R+11.0 | 2 |